Budget 2024 set to include mortgage tax relief, €12 social welfare ...

Good morning and welcome to our Budget 2024 coverage. I’m Conor Pope. We will be running this live story throughout the day so you can consider it your one-stop budget shop. But first, here are some of our top budget reads from today.

So, what do we know now? Quite a bit as it happens, thanks mainly to our hard-working political reporters who have been assiduously mining various seams of news to extract nuggets of information for many weeks.

Here are some of the things you can expect to be announced later today.

There will be a mortgage tax break worth up to €1,250 for homeowners. It will be on the table to those with a home loan of between €80,000 and €500,000 at the end of last year. Those who qualify will get 20 per cent relief on the increased amount of interest paid on their mortgage between 2022 and 2023.As it stands people start paying tax at the top 40 per cent rate once they earn €40,000. The ceiling is to be raised to €42,000.There is likely to be three energy credits of €150 each – one before Christmas and two after it.There will be a double payment of child benefit before Christmas, and a double welfare payment after Christmas.All social welfare payments are to rise by €12 a week.The budget will also include the establishment of new savings funds where excess corporation tax revenues will be lodged.The tax credit for renters is likely to climb from the current €500 to maybe €800.The free schoolbooks scheme is to be extended to students in the first three years of secondary school.Government sources say there is agreement to reduce childcare fees by another 25 per cent but that it would occur “later” in 2024.There was a time when the old reliables were made up of booze, fags and petrol. In recent years, however, the old reliables have become the old reliable, with tobacco the only one of the cash-cow trio hit by higher taxes. It looks like it will be the same again this year with 50 cent likely to be added to the price of a packet of 20 cigarettes.

Best budget reads

Package to see big spending increases and tax cuts for middle-income earnersGardaí prepare ‘mini sterile zone’ around Leinster House for budget dayMajor new investment funds to be announced in budgetA renter, a landlord and a teacher set out their budget wish list: ‘We are the squeezed middle’Our golden era in public finances is ending, but what will we have to show for it?The table, the couch and the art of pulling a budget togetherHow to cut through the spin and spot the real changesAsk the Experts: Do you have a budget query for our in-house experts? Submit it here and check back on Wednesday when Dominic Coyle (Irish Times) and Máiread Harbron will be answering your queries live from 7am

Tánaiste Micheál Martin said the “world is not in a good place” and the budget will reflect the global situation.

The Minister for Foreign Affairs said this makes economic forecasting and planning difficult so it makes sense that the Government will be putting resources aside for invstement funds for the future.

He said: “apart from that I think the cost-of-living is something that has impacted on people so we’re anxious to try and help people deal with that as best we can.”

Mr Martin made particular reference to housing measures in his pre-Cabinet remarks to reporters saying the Government wants to “maintain momentum” in the area.

Fianna Fáil holds the housing brief in the Coalition and its minister Darragh O’Brien is tasked with ramping up supply to ease the current crisis.

Mr Martin said the budget will “primarily” help people with the cost-of-living.

“In addition to that we’re anxious to maintain momentum on housing, to keep supply going and also to keep... more houses in the rental market but also to give a break for renters.”

He said there will be capital funding for housing “across the board and the finances available... will keep the momentum going.”

We are exceeding targets. Last year’s targets were exceeded.

“We’re going well this year in terms of commencements but of course we need to get house-building up even more significantly for the future both on social housing and on affordable housing.”

Mr Martin also highlighted plans to “invest strongly” in education and childcare as well as to set up investment funds for the future.

Before we get into the meat of the story, we thought you might like a history lesson that you can lean on to impress your friends as the day drags on.

The word budget as we use it today was most likely coined in a satirical cartoon of the-then British prime minister and chancellor of the exchequer Robert Walpole in 1733. After he published details of Britain’s finances, a cartoon in a satirical magazine featured him opening a bag of snake oils under the not entirely hilarious caption: “The Budget Opened”.

And what was a budget? We’re glad you asked. In middle English and old French a budge was a small suitcase – it is part of the reason ministers still carry a briefcase into the Dáil on budget day.

More from Government Buildings where the Cabinet is meeting to sign off on the budget.

According to Cormac McQuinn, the Taoiseach Leo Varadkar has told reporters it will have a “significant” income tax package, measures to help with the cost of living and a focus on reducing child poverty.

According to the Fine Gael leader, there will be “mainly good news” announced later this afternoon, in what he says will be probably the second-biggest budget package he has been involved in during 13 years in government.

“There’ll be a significant income tax and USC package reducing the amount of income tax people have to pay, help with the cost of living in the run-up to Christmas and also afterwards particularly with a focus on energy bills.

“There’ll be help for small business and farmers and also a social welfare package put together by minister [Heather] Humphreys and that will involve help for pensioners, help for people in receipt of social welfare payments but also a particular focus on children and families and making it easier to raise a family and crucially helping to reduce child poverty as well.”

Mr Varadkar said the budget will be “a little bit different to last year because inflation is moderating.

“But notwithstanding that prices are still high and rising and that’s why there’s a particular focus on the cost of living and making sure that you have more money in your pocket and that what money you have goes farther.”

Mr Varadkar rejected a suggestion the planned tax cuts will benefit people on higher incomes most.

“That’s not the case ... the income tax package which minister [Michael] McGrath will announce the detail of later involves increases in tax credits, reductions in the USC and also reductions in income tax so that will benefit pretty much all workers.”

He also said: “The nature of the tax system is that middle-income and higher-income people pay the most income tax so therefore any income tax package is going to benefit middle-income people and more affluent people more.

“But that’s why you have to see the budget in the round, and there will be other measures – for example, around the cost of living, around social welfare and around the cost of childcare and the cost of school and college. They will benefit everyone. People who aren’t working for example will benefit a lot from them.”

Minister for Public Expenditure Paschal Donohoe and Minister for Finance Michael McGrath looking relaxed last night in the Department of Finance. Photograph: Tom Honan.

By historical standards a ‘big budget’

And we have news just in from Political Correspondent Cormac McQuinn.

Minister for Public Expenditure Paschal Donohoe was not giving much away when asked by reporters this morning if there will be any surprises announced this afternoon, but he did promise a “big budget” by historical standards.

On his way into Cabinet he said: “Every budget announcement will always contain some elements to it that might not be expected. But I think by this point all the key features now have been well flagged.

“It’s a budget that will be bringing forward further support to help with the cost of living.

“In addition to that we will be continuing to invest more in really important public services, but crucially we’re going to be doing all that while making really important decisions with regard to our public finances.”

Asked if it would be more conservative than previous budgets he replied: “Any budget that contains this degree of spending could hardly be described as conservative. But it is a different budget to what we delivered a year ago.

“The amount of growth in day-to-day public spending is at a lower pace than the budget that was brought forward last year,” he said. n

“And also the one-off measures that we have brought forward have been changed to reflect the fact that while inflation is still present in all of our lives it is growing at a slower pace than it did a year ago.

“So the budget is of a different scale but it is still by historical standards a big budget.”

He also said Minister for Finance Michael McGrath is bringing forward “a very, very well-balanced set of proposals with regard to taxation”.

Mr Donohoe added: “The biggest benefit that will be delivered due to the change in Universal Social Charge (USC) will be on those who are on low to middle incomes.”

The Green Party has secured Government agreement to create “a €3 billion war chest” to invest in climate and nature restoration projects over the remainder of the decade, writes Environment and Science Editor Kevin O’Sullivan.

The strategic fund is one of the first of its kind in the world and means investment in crucial environmental projects will be prioritised in years to come. The total €3.15bn allocation is in addition to funding already earmarked for climate and nature in the national development plan.

Although the exact projects that will be funded have not yet been decided, it is expected the focus will be on projects that help cut Ireland’s use of fossil fuels; make public and private buildings stock more energy efficient; restore natural habitats; and improve water quality in rivers and lakes.

It is understood it will also be used for a large number of projects in the Government’s climate plan, notably retrofitting; district heating; supports for farmers who undertake nature protection; and supports for decarbonisation of businesses.

The investment, the Government believes, makes sense from an economic and business point of view as it will position Ireland at the forefront of the new green economy.

A failure to invest sufficiently in climate action and nature restoration could also leave Ireland open to billions of euro in EU fines over coming years. This, in effect, would see the Republic subsidising other EU countries to carry out the same work and reap the rewards themselves.

It’s not just leaks of course. There are also kites. The flying of kites is now as much a pre-budget ritual as the waving of a suitcase on the steps of Leinster House. And before you ask, no we have no idea what is going to be in Michael McGrath’s briefcase today – but we do have an interesting fact about the case that we will hold back for now.

Kites work like this. A Minister or his people will have a quiet word with a reporter about a plan they might have – trebling the price of a pint say (don’t worry, that is NOT on the table).

Then the reporter will splash with the news that the Government is planning to triple the price of a pint. The public will either react with fury – in which case the kite will be quickly lowered – or with a shrug of the collective shoulders and the kite will stay in the air, possibly becoming a policy.

So, how do we know so much about what is going to be in the budget this year? And was it always like this? The answer to the second part of your question – actually, it’s not your question, it’s our question but anyways – is a resolute no.

The annual budget used to be one of the most closely guarded secrets in Irish – and indeed in world – politics. In the late 1940s, then British chancellor of the exchequer Hugh Dalton was forced to resign after making a casual remark about his budget plans to a journalist that then found its way into the evening papers minutes before he delivered his speech to the House of Commons.

Can you imagine if the same rules applied today? There’d not be a Minister left in Dáil Éireann today.

In an Irish context, for donkey’s years, the budget plans of the minister for finance was as tightly guarded a secret as the Third Secret of Fatima. Leaks were a sackable offence. Then Fianna Fáil started releasing – slightly secretly – the top lines of the budget to the evening newspapers on the day of publication. It slowly became a free-for-all and these days almost every line in the budget is flagged well in advance.

This is how our Budget coverage is shaping up both online and in print.

Jack Horgan Jones has some more detail on the social welfare changes we can expect.

There will be a double lump sum Child Benefit: €280

Social welfare recipients can expect a Christmas Bonus and a January Bonus.

And here are some more figures.

€200 on Living Alone Allowance€400 Carers Support Grant€400 Disability Support Grant€400 working family payment€300 Fuel Allowance payment€100 Qualified Child Bonus

Mortgage payers whose repayments have soared with European Central Bank rate rises will receive tax relief of up to €1,250 as part of Tuesday’s multibillion euro giveaway budget, writes Political Editor Pat Leahy.

There will also be a €12 a week increase in basic welfare rates – far less than that sought by campaigners; tax cuts targeted at middle-income earners; big spending increases across all Government departments; a package of once-off payments including a double month of child benefit before Christmas, a double welfare payment in the new year and three energy credits worth €450; help for small businesses; and further cuts to the cost of childcare next year.

New funds for climate action, infrastructure and long-term savings will also be part of a huge spend-and-save budget to be unveiled by the Government. A proposal was also being considered that would see landlords get tax breaks worth €600, rising to €1,000 over time if they stay in the market.

All told, the Coalition will announce a pre-election budget with spending increases and tax cuts worth more than €9 billion that gives almost €2.5 billion in cash back to voters in the coming months.

Elsewhere, Government leaders were closing in on a package that would see a €100 increase in personal, PAYE and earned income tax credits; an increase in the ceiling for the 2 per cent USC rate to €25,760; and the 4.5 per USC rate cut to 4 per cent. The threshold for paying the higher rate of tax is set to be raised by €2,000 to €42,000.

In terms of our coverage over the day we will of course be covering the speeches from Minister for Finance Michael McGrath and Minister for Public Expenditure Paschal Donohoe in the early afternoon and also the speeches from the Opposition in response. These start at 1pm.

We’ll also gather all the changes into a comprehensive main points, political reaction and reaction from other interested parties. In short, we will aim to have the story covered from all the angles that you could possibly imagine – and maybe some you haven’t even thought of yet.

Stay with us, it’s going to be a long enough day but – fingers crossed – we might all be a bit better off by the time the curtain comes down on our coverage this evening.