How Will Manchester United Cope Without Casemiro?

MANCHESTER, ENGLAND - MARCH 12: Casemiro of Manchester United after being sent off during the ... [+] Premier League match between Manchester United and Southampton FC at Old Trafford on March 12, 2023 in Manchester, England. (Photo by Matt Watson/Southampton FC via Getty Images)

It felt like the whole of Old Trafford held its collective breath when referee Anthony Taylor went to check the monitor at the side of the pitch during Manchester United’s 0-0 draw against Southampton in the Premier League on Sunday afternoon.

The game’s VAR Andre Marriner had asked Taylor to review video footage to see if the yellow card he had just shown to the United midfielder Casemiro should be upgraded to a red card for his tackle on Southampton’s Carlos Alcaraz.

The Brazilian might have connected with the ball first, and ultimately won it, but the studs on his right boot had also crashed into Alcaraz’s shin.

Taylor decided this tackle represented serious foul play and on his return to the centre of the pitch cancelled the yellow card and showed Casemiro a red.

The Brazilian looked distraught, covering his face with his hands and resting his head on his team-mate Antony’s shoulder before slowly walking back to the tunnel.

His despair was mirrored in the stands by the United fans who have come to see him as arguably their club’s most influential player this season.

Manchester United's Casemiro is consoled by Antony after being shown a red card during the Premier ... [+] League match at Old Trafford, Manchester. Picture date: Sunday March 12, 2023. (Photo by Martin Rickett/PA Images via Getty Images)

Casemiro has given United a new presence and control this season, and his performances have helped them win the Carabao Cup, in which he scored against Newcastle in the final, lift them into the top four in the table, and remain in the latter stages of both the FA Cup and the Europa League.

It is obvious what Casemiro has brought to United, and this is overwhelmingly confirmed with a quick glance at the statistics. United’s win rate with the Brazilian is 76%, but in the seven games he has been missing that dramatically falls to just 43%.

United score around the same amount of goals with Casemiro at 1.9 per game as without him at 1.7 per game, but the real difference can be seen in the impact he makes to United’s defence; with him they have conceded 0.9 goals per game, but without him that almost doubles to 1.7 goals.

But United are going to have to cope without the Brazilian for their next four domestic games, against Fulham in the FA Cup, and Newcastle, Brentford and Everton in the Premier League, as his red card at the weekend was his second of the season, following the one he was shown against Crystal Palace last month.

It represents a huge loss at a crucial stage of the season, especially as United do not have an obvious replacement, sparking a debate about how they are going to cope.

MANCHESTER, ENGLAND - MARCH 12: Romeo Lavia of Southampton battles for possession with Scott ... [+] McTominay of Manchester United during the Premier League match between Manchester United and Southampton FC at Old Trafford on March 12, 2023 in Manchester, England. (Photo by Nathan Stirk/Getty Images)

The most likely candidate to fill the void is Scott McTominay, who was brought on against Southampton soon after Casemiro’s sending off to bolster United’s midfield.

The Scot performed ably for United, helping to stop Southampton taking advantage of their extra man and usher his side towards a point.

It should not be forgotten McTominay’s performances earlier in the season delayed Casemiro’s full Premier League debut after he had signed in August.

McTominay responded to the Brazilian’s arrival by producing some of his best form and helping them to four consecutive Premier League wins against Liverpool, Southampton, Leicester City and Arsenal. His manager Erik ten Hag admitted he had made it impossible to simply cast him aside for his new £70 million signing.

But McTominay is not a natural central defensive midfielder, and though he can use his strength and athleticism to form a barrier in the middle of the pitch, he lacks the calmness and passing ability to truly excel in the role.

LONDON, ENGLAND - FEBRUARY 26: Marcel Sabitzer of Manchester United celebrates on the plane after ... [+] the Carabao Cup Final match between Manchester United and Newcastle United at Wembley Stadium on February 26, 2023 in London, England. (Photo by Matthew Peters/Manchester United via Getty Images)

When Casemiro was banned for three games last month Ten Hag turned to the Austrian midfielder Marcel Sabitzer, who he brought in on loan from Bayern Munich at the end of the January transfer window.

Sabitzer impressed against Leeds at home and away and against Leicester City at Old Trafford in February, as United took seven points from a possible nine. The Austrian is more comfortable on the ball than McTominay, and during games has significantly more touches of it.

Sabitzer might be more of a box-to-box midfielder, but he could certainly offer United a temporary solution. However, he has missed the last two games through injury and it is uncertain when he will be fit to return.

Another alternative is the 17-year-old Kobbie Mainoo, but he only has 10 minutes of Premier League experience, and might represent too much of a risk.

It has become abundantly clear without Casemiro United look vulnerable, and their midfield needs to be strengthened in the summer, but before then the hope is that they can get through the next four domestic games relatively unscathed.