UEFA Champions League Match Predictions | The Analyst

With the help of the AI-powered Opta supercomputer, we provide our UEFA Champions League match predictions for every game across each matchday.

The UEFA Champions League season in 2023-24 promises to be one of the best in recent memory.

Manchester City won their first ever UCL title in 2022-23 thanks to a 1-0 win over Internazionale, but can they become just the second club to retain the Champions League trophy after Real Madrid’s three successive titles between 2016 and 2018? With Europe’s biggest and best clubs competing, it’ll be a tough task.

Our AI-powered supercomputer will be making its Opta Predictions for every fixture over the course of what looks set to be an exciting UCL season.

Read on, as Opta Analyst provides its UEFA Champions League match predictions and be sure to check back here ahead of each matchday.

Matchday 6 UEFA Champions League MD 6: The Quick Hits Manchester United face Bayern Munich at Old Trafford, and need a win to stand a chance of progressing to the last 16. They have just a 9.4% chance of making the next round, according to Opta’s projections. A victory for Paris Saint-Germain in Dortmund would ensure their progression from Group F. However, should Luis Enrique’s team fail to win, then that will open the door for Newcastle United or Milan to qualify. Holders Manchester City are the biggest favourites of the round, with an 82.7% chance of beating Red Star Belgrade.

It’s time for matchday six of the Champions League group stage, and while 12 teams are sure of their progression to the last 16, there are still four places up for grabs.

Man Utd are starting down the barrel of an early exit, and even a win against Group A leaders Bayern would not guarantee their progress.

Meanwhile, Group F is wide open, with PSG, Milan and Newcastle all hoping to join Borussia Dortmund in the next round.

Tuesday’s early games take place in Group B. Arsenal are already through, winning four of their five matches so far. Only once have they won five of their group stage games in a single campaign, doing so in 2005-06 when they reached the final for the first and only time. However, our predictor has them favourites heading into their trip to PSV, with the Gunners handed a 44.8% likelihood of coming away with three points. Gabriel Jesus has been sensational for Mikel Arteta’s side in Europe this term – could become the first ever player to score in five matches in a row in the competition for the Gunners.

With PSV sure of making it through, Lens and Sevilla are fighting it out for third place, and a spot in the Europa League – Sevilla, of course, are the holders of that trophy. A win for the Spanish team would see them finish in third place, but any other result, and it will be Lens who drop into UEFA’s second-tier tournament. The Ligue 1 side are backed by our model (53.6%); Lens have a 100% record against Spanish sides on home soil, having defeated Atletico Madrid (UEFA Cup, 2000), Celta Vigo (UEFA Cup, 2000), Deportivo de La Coruna (Champions League, 2002) and Osasuna (UEFA Cup, 2006).

Manchester United were hammered 3-0 at home by Bournemouth on Saturday, and Erik ten Hag needs a minor miracle to see his team continue in the Champions League. The only way Man United can progress is by beating Bayern Munich (who are coming off the back of a shock 5-1 loss at Eintracht Frankfurt) and hoping for a draw in Group A’s other game between Copenhagen and Galatasaray, but our model rates the Bundesliga champions’ win probability as 50.5%, with United given just a 25.8% chance. Bayern are unbeaten in 39 Champions League group stage games (W35 D4), since a 3-0 loss at Paris Saint-Germain in 2017-18, while Harry Kane has been involved in nine goals in his last 11 appearances against Man Utd in all competitions (five goals, four assists).

As mentioned, Copenhagen host Galatasaray in the other Group A match, and it will be a case of winner takes all (or at least, second place). Along with RB Salzburg vs Benfica, this one is the most likely to finish all square, though of course that result would do neither team any good should Man Utd win. Copenhagen, who defeated the Red Devils 4-3 in their last home match, are made the slight favourites (39.2%). Gala have won just one of their last 19 away UEFA Champions League matches (D3 L15), a 3-2 win at Old Trafford on MD2 this season.

Union Berlin’s elimination has already been confirmed, but they could still qualify for the Europa League. However, to do so, they will have to beat the mighty Real Madrid. Our predictor does not fancy their chances, giving them just an 11.7% chance of victory, while Los Blancos’ win probability stands at 72%. Madrid have won each of their last five games in the Champions League, while they last had a longer run of consecutive victories in the competition between April 2014 and February 2015 (10 wins in a row) – also under Carlo Ancelotti. Jude Bellingham, meanwhile, could become the first ever Madrid player to score in their first three away Champions League appearances for the club.

Napoli host Braga in the other match, needing just a point to progress. The Serie A champions are well backed to go and win, however, with our model rating their chances at 63.9%. Napoli are winless in their last three home Champions League matches (D2 L1), however – but never before have the Partenopei gone four without a win on home soil in major European competition.

Inter and Real Sociedad had progress from Group D wrapped up swiftly, but top spot in the pool is on the line when they meet at San Siro, where the home side are the favourites (57.9% compared to 20.6% for La Real). This is the first time Inter have hosted La Real since 1979; the Nerazzurri have only lost one of their last 12 matches in the UEFA Champions League (W7 D4), with that one defeat coming against Man City in last season’s final (0-1).

As previously mentioned, RB Salzburg vs Benfica has a good chance of being a draw (25%, in fact). Benfica are winless in their last seven UEFA Champions League games (D2 L5), and could equal their longest run without a win in the competition in this match – eight games between March 2017 and September 2018.

The last matches of Group G get matters started on Wednesday. Holders Manchester City take on Red Star Belgrade in Serbia, aiming to maintain their 100% record in the group. They are backed to do just that too, with our model giving them a win probability of 82.7%. Red Star’s chances are ranked at just 7.1%. The only English team ever to win all six group games in a season were Liverpool in 2021-22, while City are also unbeaten in their last 18 Champions League matches (W13 D5), winning the last seven in a row. If they go unbeaten in this game, it would be the joint second longest run of games without defeat in the competition, with Ajax (19 between 1994 and 1996) and Bayern (two runs of 19 between 2001 and 2002 & 2019 and 2021) having 19-game runs. The record is 25 games set by city rivals Man Utd between 2007 and 2009.

RB Leipzig are heavily fancied to beat Young Boys, too, with Opta’s UCL prediction model predicting a win for the German team at 71.4%. Young Boys have won just one of their five major European visits to Germany (D2 L2), winning their most recent such match in February 2021 in the UEFA Europa League against Bayer Leverkusen, a 2-0 win. Indeed, the Swiss side are yet to register an away win in the Champions League in eight previous attempts (D2 L6).

Group E, too, is all but settled, though Lazio can take top spot from Atletico Madrid’s clutches should they win in the Spanish capital. Not that our predictor backs them to do that – the likelihood of an away victory is just 17.3%. Atleti (62.9%) are the clear favourites, and they will be looking to finish top of their group in a UEFA Champions League campaign for the first time since 2016-17, having gone through as runners-up in each of the previous four seasons in which they have qualified (2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22).

Feyenoord head to Glasgow to face Celtic, who will definitely finish bottom of the pile. This match is the one most likely to be a draw of Wednesday’s slate (24.9%), though the visitors are the favourites at 43.7%. They will be looking to win three games in a single campaign for the first time since 1999-2000. Celtic manager Brendan Rodgers has won none of his last 10 home games in the Champions League (D3 L7).

The drama could come in Group F, which remains wide open heading into the final games. PSG need a win at Borussia Dortmund to guarantee their progression. Should the Ligue 1 champions head out, it would be another hammer blow in the faltering Qatari project – albeit Luis Enrique could hardly complain. PSG are so reliant on Kylian Mbappé, it is perhaps no surprise to see group leaders BVB are the favourites (44.9%), with the visitors handed a 30.4% chance of winning. Dortmund will be aiming to finish top of their Champions League group for the first time since 2020-21, when they went on to reach the quarter-finals. Mbappé has been directly involved in at least one goal in all four Champions League starts against Dortmund (four goals, one assist). Only Cristiano Ronaldo (seven) has ever scored more goals against Dortmund in the competition.

A draw could be enough for PSG, but for Newcastle United and Milan, only a win will be enough – and even three points is no guarantee. The Magpies have home advantage, and they will be looking to make that count in front of what will be a vociferous St James’ Park – our model makes them the favourites (54.9%). Milan have only scored three goals in the UEFA Champions League, with no side scoring fewer through the opening five matchdays. They are the team with the biggest negative difference between their goals scored and expected goals (xG) this term (-4.9 – three goals from 7.9 xG).

Barcelona are through from Group H, albeit Xavi’s side have been far from convincing. They should be confident of rounding things off with a win, though, when they take on Antwerp, who are yet to pick up a single point. The Blaugrana’s chances are rated at 64.1%  – avoiding defeat in this game will see Barca win their group in the Champions League for a 22nd time (including second group stages), and first time since 2019-20. The Spaniards already hold the record for the most groups ended top in the history of the competition with 21.

Porto and Shakhtar Donetsk will battle it out to progress in the other match. The Portuguese giants are fancied (70.8%), but their Ukrainian opponents have done exceptionally well to get to nine points, beating Barca en route to doing so. However, Shakhtar have only won on MD 6 in one of their last 10 group stages in the competition (D4 L5), beating Man City in 2017-18.

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