The Longshot: Plenty of goals are likely tonight in Champions League
BAYER Leverkusen did it again at the weekend. Their sixth-minute of injury-time equaliser against Stuttgart coming a minute quicker than the one that rescued them against Dortmund last weekend.
They have already shaken of the tag of ‘Neverkusen’ by winning their first ever Bundesliga, but also look determined to go through the season unbeaten.
Xabi Alonso’s men are 10/11 to win the Europa League in Dublin next month but first must overcome Roma on Thursday in the semi-finals (Atalanta travel to Marseille in the other semi).
They stopped Bayern Munich doing the 12-in-a-row so maybe the Basque manager could be drafted in with the Meath footballers as an advisor next season to try and halt the Dubs’ march to 15-in-a-row in Leinster next season (Alonso famously spent time in the Royal county as a child on a student exchange programme in Kells).
Harry Kane’s chance of finally picking up easy silverware was torpedoed by Leverkusen’s stunning form, but he will get a chance to get a step closer to a medal tonight when the Bavarians host Real Madrid in the first leg of the Champions League semis.
Real are 6/4 to lift the crown for a 15th time, with Bayern 5/2 alongside PSG, who take on the other German side left vying for glory, Borussia Dortmund (8/1) tomorrow evening.
We are likely to see goals tonight, going on recent stats. There has been just three clean sheets in the last 12 meetings between the European heavyweights.
Both teams scored in seven out of eight in the recent quarter-finals.
Bayern have scored in 49 of the last 51 home matches in the Champions League, while Real have scored in their last 30 matches, and last 24 away matches, in a row. In 11 of the last 13 home meetings between the two in Munich, both teams scored, so 4/7 on that looks enticing.
This will be the 27th time Bayern and Real have gone head-to-head in the Champions League/European Cup, making it the most-played fixture in competition history.
Bayern dominated the early meetings by winning nine of the first 13 and losing just three. That dominance was maintained up until the 2002 quarter-final second leg, when they lost 2-0 after winning the opening leg 2-1.
Since then, it’s the Spaniards who have enjoyed this fixture most, with Real losing just two of the 13 meetings since that 2002 first-leg defeat in Munich. Even then, Bayern have still managed to knock Real out of the Champions League twice during that time, beating them on away goals after a 4-4 aggregate draw in the 2007 round of 16 and on penalties in the 2012 semi-finals after the two legs finished 3-3.
The visitors do boast a six-match unbeaten sequence against Bayern in the Champions League since , sending them packing in 2013-14, 2016-17 and 2017-18 before their continental coronations in each year.
Bayern have injury concerns for Leroy Sane, Serge Gnabry, Dayot Upamecano, and Kingsley Coman, but only the latter looks likely to miss the first leg.
Tomorrow’s leg would seem to mostly about if PSG will manage to scupper their European ambitions again. Can they squeeze a trophy out of Kylian Mbappe before he ups sticks for Madrid next season?
PSG are 2/5 to reach the final for just the second time but they will not underestimate Dortmund, who beat Atletico Madrid against the odds in the last round and are 7/4 to qualify from the tie.
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CORK’S hopes of advancing in the Munster round-robin hang by at thread after defeat by Clare down at the end of Centre Park Road (soon to be Centra Park Road, surely?) on Sunday.
For the delightful first goal by Patrick Horgan the ball was batted away by a Clare defender just after it had crossed the line but the eagle-eyed men in white spotted it was a green flag without the absent Hawkeye confirm it.
Maybe there should be a barcode stuck on the sliothar and the umpires could be given too supermarket scanners and there would be a beep when it crossed the line?
The Rebels really need to win there next two games against Limerick and Tipp, although there is a slim chance they could get through on score difference even with just two points.
Pat Ryan’s men have drifted to 50/1 to win Liam before they head into a 20th year empty handed.
Limerick remain have shortened slightly to 4/6 to complete the five in a row after their facile win over a lacklustre Tipp in the second game.
You can back the field (all the other teams, not the actual field) at 6/5 to stop them from creating history this July.
Peter Casey, star of the decider last year, suffered a terrible injury when scoring a goal against Tipp and will miss the rest of the season.
Waterford host Tipp in the only Munster clash next weekend and it would probably be best if the Premier County come out on top for the Rebels.
The Banner are into 6/1 a first All-Ireland in one shy of a dozen years, the same price as last year’s finalists Kilkenny.
The Cats drew with Galway last weekend in a cracker up in Pearse Stadium and the Tribesmen are 9/1 to give Henry Shefflin another big win in Croker.
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WE plumped for Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry to partner up successfully at the Zurich Classic over the weekend and the Irish pair prevailed after one playoff hole to deliver at 8/1 against a Ramey/Trainer duo who came into the extra hole cold, having sat on the lead in the clubhouse for nearly three hours.
The Down man was the dominant partner as Lowry continued to struggle with the flat stick, but the win means the Offaly man will get into three of the signature events on the PGA Tour later in the year.
McIlroy is 12/1 second favourite for the USPGA major that tees off on Thursday fortnight, with Lowry 50/1.
The CJ Cup Byron Nelson is next up as Jason Day (18/1) tries to defend his title. I once followed Nelson (who won 18 out of 30 tournaments in the 1945 USPGA season) around Ballybunion Old Course when he played there with Tom Watson many moons ago. I got a chance to play the course last Saturday for a fraction of the now €350 green fee and heard that Watson will be around this Friday to renew connections at his favourite club in the world.
Seamus Power is 70/1 to make it two wins in a row for Ireland at 70/1.
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CROKER will host the the semi-final of the Champions Cup next weekend, 15 years on from the last time it hosted the same stage of the competition, when Munster’s dominance was waning and they surrendered their title to Leinster, who would go on to beat Leicester and take their first title. Johnny Sexton famously lorded it over Ronan O’Gara in that 25-6 defeat, that was watched by a then world record attendance for club rugby union.
Northampton Saints are in the opposite corner next Saturday (Toulouse and Harlequins face off in the other semi the next day).
Leo Cullen’s side are tied with Toulouse on 11/10 to lift a fifth title and go level with Frenchmen, who are seeking to win a sixth. Northampton are 14/1 and Quins 33/1.
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WITH three games remaining, Luton are still a point behind Forest in the race to stay in the Premier League.
The Hatters meet Everton on Friday night at home and there is a chance the Toffees might take a foot of the pedal after almost guaranteeing their own safety in recent weeks.
The Hatters are 2/9 to go straight back down, with Forest rated 2/1.
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The Bet
BAYERN have not lost any of their last 15 home matches in a row in the Champions League, but injuries make tipping them to win a bit dangerous.
Take them instead to draw 2-2 at 12/1.
Add in Dortmund to win at home and you will be offered odds of 34/1.
