FA Cup is important when things go bad

20 Apr 2024

THE FA Cup semi-final weekend was once a big deal in the football calendar. Nowadays, it hardly interrupts the incessant flow of fixtures across the leagues. However, the significance of the FA Cup is probably more important to the remaining participants than for many a long year.

FA Cup - Figure 1
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For three of the sides competing for a place in the final, it is all in or nothing for their season. For the fourth, a victory today at Wembley has suddenly grown in importance in lieu of the Champions League heartache on Wednesday.

Manchester City face Chelsea in the top semi-final encounter of the weekend this evening at Wembley. All eyes will be on City and how they handle that crushing penalty shoot-out defeat, at home, in the Champions League midweek.

City joined the long list of teams to dominate their game against Real Madrid only to find themselves on the wrong end of a head-scratching defeat from Spain’s competition specialist.

As defending champions, it is no doubt a crushing result and how they respond in today’s game will be of great interest. Will Wednesday’s result be so disconcerting that they lose their composure completely? Or will they be all the more determined to bag the cup and league double still open to them?

Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola reacts during the UEFA Champions League quarter-final, second leg match at the Etihad Stadium, Manchester. Picture : Mike Egerton/PA Wire

Wembley wobbles

FA Cup - Figure 2
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Chelsea will be hoping for the former as they look to end an annus horribilis for them.

Sitting ninth in the league now with little hope of qualifying for a place in Europe next season, the Pensioners’ only hope of silverware is in the FA Cup. With today’s game arguably the toughest part of the equation with either lowly Coventry or fellow misfiring Manchester United waiting in the final from tomorrow’s other semi-final.

Recent trips to Wembley in the FA Cup and Carabao Cup have not been friendly to Chelsea over the past four years with them missing out mainly through shootout defeats at the hands of Liverpool. Not that their recent experiences against Man City is much better. Chelsea have not beaten City in their last eight meetings, in all competitions. They also have been eliminated from five of their last seven FA Cup ties against City, including in the third-round last season. However, they did beat the Citizens 1-0 the last time they played them in the semi-final, back in the 2020-21 season.

Man City, under Pep Guardiola, have become regular semi-final visitors with today being their seventh last four FA Cup match in the last eight seasons, with them also being the first team to make it on sixth consecutive occasions. In saying that, they have only made it to the final twice from this position, in 2019 and last season.

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Beyond the stats, will Guardiola be more interested in sealing the Premier League title, now that Europe’s top prize is gone? Both Arsenal and Liverpool could technically be four points ahead of City by the time they get to play in the Premier League again. Of course, City would have two games in hand on both, but as they say: points on the table count more than games in hand.

Still Guardiola rarely takes his foot off the pedal, and I can’t see him throwing away a chance of another cup so easily.

Chelsea's Cole Palmer holds onto the ball as Chelsea player discuss who will take the penalty during the Premier League match at Stamford Bridge, London.

For their part, Chelsea are slowly shrugging off their horrible results from earlier in the season and were on fire against an albeit lowly Everton side in their 6-0 win in the league last Monday. Now some may be critical of the Chelsea players fighting over the ball for their penalty goal when they were already 4-0 up, but others would say it shows their hunger for success. Either way they will not have it as easy against City today.

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Underdogs

The other semi-final, tomorrow, has, as we said, Coventry against Man United and few would have predicted this semi-final at the start of the season. Even so, illustrious United probably need a win here more than Coventry, who it could be argued have already achieved more than expected. But for United, with Champions League qualification probably out of reach, the FA Cup becomes crucial to the struggling giant and under pressure manager Erik ten Hag.

Bournemouth's Max Aarons (left) and Manchester United's Marcus Rashford battle for the ball during the Premier League match at the Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth. Picture: Andrew Matthews/PA Wire

United needed a controversial VAR decision to go against Bournemouth for them to escape with a 2-2 draw in the league last weekend, leaving United 13-points off fourth-placed Aston Villa, with just six matches remaining.

Historically, teams from outside the top-flight have struggled to advance with the last six to have tried all falling at the penultimate fence. So if Coventry should claim a win tomorrow they will be the first side from outside the Premier League since 2008 to make the final.

FA Cup - Figure 5
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Coventry City's Ellis Simms (centre right) attempts a shot on goal during the Sky Bet Championship match at St Mary's Stadium, Southampton. Picture: Steven Paston/PA Wire

Pressure

There is growing speculation that the FA Cup win is a must for Ten Hag if he is to maintain his job at Old Trafford. Facing Coventry gives him a great opportunity of at least fighting his way to the final.

Manchester United manager Erik ten Hag instructs Kobbie Mainoo on the touchline during the Premier League match at the Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth. Picture: Andrew Matthews/PA Wire

United have not won a game since coming back from the international break and risk ending the season with a negative goal difference for the season. The first time that has happened since 1990. Back then another Man United manager was ready to be shown the door but for an unexpected FA Cup triumph saving his bacon. That manager was, Alex Ferguson…

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