13 insights fantasy football managers need to know ahead of Week 12
Having trouble setting a lineup this week? Welcome to Byepocalypse. Or is it Byemaggedon? Whatever you call it, having six teams on bye in a must-win Week 12 is far from ideal.
This week marks the first of two six-team bye weeks this season. Thankfully, no teams will be on bye during Week 13 (Thanksgiving week), but Week 14 will bring more pain and suffering for fantasy managers, with late byes scheduled just before the fantasy playoffs. As if fantasy managers don’t need wins during the final week of the regular season, right? Clearly, the NFL schedule makers have zero respect for this thing of ours.
Week 12 will be a condensed one, with fewer teams playing and multiple fantasy stars getting a week off. Still, there are some fun matchups to look forward to, with one game standing out above the rest.
The Harbaugh brothers face off once again in the Harbaugh Bowl. John Harbaugh’s Ravens head to LA to take on Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers in a coaching rematch of their Super Bowl XLVII clash, this time on Monday Night Football.
Chargers HC Jim Harbaugh on competing against John Harbaugh: “I’m sure my brother looks at it the same way I do, same way my family does.”
“I’m sure he doesn’t want to make it about him, I don’t want to make it about me.”
The Harbaugh Bowl will take place on November 25th-Jack… pic.twitter.com/ImmffinX8p
— Alex Insdorf (@alexinsdorf99) November 20, 2024
The game is shaping up to be far more fantasy-relevant than anyone expected when the schedule was released. Justin Herbert has been on an absolute tear lately, showcasing more dual-threat ability than ever before in his career.
The only QB this season with 290+ passing yards and 60+ rushing yards in a game:
— Justin Herbert
Entering the dual-threat QB discussion. pic.twitter.com/5ggGE8UwSy
— StatMuse Football (@statmusefb) November 18, 2024
Herbert will square off against Lamar Jackson, this year’s top fantasy QB, who will be looking to rebound after his lowest-scoring fantasy performance of the season in Sunday’s loss to Pittsburgh.
While this matchup will have plenty of eyes on it, it’s not the only show in town. Here are a few things fantasy managers should keep an eye on in Week 12 and beyond.
1. Brock Bowers is about to set ALL THE RECORDSThis past summer, I compared Bowers to a bigger Jordy Nelson, with some Shannon Sharpe mixed in. I guess I wasn’t bullish enough. Sunday’s usage was insane. Bowers posted a 41% target share for a ridiculous 13 catches and 126 yards on 16 targets. He did this coming out of a bye week, with Las Vegas having had plenty of extra time to prepare. Post-bye-week usage can often signal more to come. Double-digit weekly targets are a real possibility for Bowers for the rest of the season.
Most receptions in first 10 career games:
Odell Beckham Jr. – 71
BROCK BOWERS – 70
Puka Nacua – 69
Saquon Barkley – 64
— Underdog NFL (@Underdog__NFL) November 18, 2024
Bowers looks poised to break a lot of records. The tight end records seem almost inevitable at this point. He needs just 17 receptions to surpass Sam LaPorta’s rookie record of 86. Mike Ditka’s yardage record — set all the way back in 1961 — is also within Bowers’ sights, with the rookie needing 371 yards to break it.
Then things get really interesting when we look at the all-time records, regardless of position. In about two weeks, Bowers — a 21-year-old tight end — will start to challenge records that have historically been dominated by wide receivers. Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase and Odell Beckham Jr. will all be surpassed. Bowers needs 37 catches to break Puka Nacua’s incredible all-time rookie record of 106 receptions, set just last season.
What about the all-time catch record for tight ends? Passing Nacua would put Bowers tied for fifth all-time among tight ends. Another 11 catches would see him pass Zach Ertz for the all-time single-season reception record at the position.
Get ready for “Bowers Watch” all December long. The Raiders drafted a real one.
2. Jaxon Smith-Njigba and the revolving aDOTJSN continued to put up strong fantasy numbers in Seattle’s win over San Francisco, but he did it in a far different way than in Week 9. Facing the Rams, Smith-Njigba’s massive career-high performance of 7 catches for 180 yards and 2 TDs was an epic performance for his fantasy managers, and JSN’s best game as a pro. He took on an expanded role without DK Metcalf and thrived.
Metcalf returned to the lineup on Sunday, but JSN yet again led the Seahawks in targets (11), catches (10) and receiving yardage. But his average depth of target was noticeably lower.
Jaxon Smith Njigba’s aDOT on first-read targets:
Weeks 1-7: 10.0
Weeks 8-9 (without Metcalf): 16.9
Week 11: 7.3 @FantasyPtsData
— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) November 19, 2024
The good news is that JSN still maintained impressive numbers and production and he has now done so in back-to-back games. But the presence of Metcalf will cap potential smash week performances. That we are even poking holes into a 21.8-point performance is a testament to JSN’s Year 2 breakout. He is currently the WR10 overall.
3. Jayden Daniels: Weekly fantasy finishesDaniels took the fantasy football world by storm early this season: two rushing touchdowns in his first game as a pro, 293 combined yards and three touchdowns in Washington’s Week 3 win in Cincinnati, and a QB5 overall finish in Washington’s road beatdown of Arizona.
But since then? While there have been some decent games, they’ve been far from the week-winning performances fantasy managers hoped for, with plenty of clunkers along the way.
Let’s get one thing straight: Daniels is very good and will be for years to come. He’s tied for third with seven QB1 finishes this season. However, his upside has been lacking recently. Since Week 6, Daniels has failed to finish higher than QB11 in any given week. In back-to-back losses to Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, he finished as QB24 and QB25, respectively.
Additionally, there’s been a noticeable lack of downfield attempts, with most of Daniels’ throws coming near the line of scrimmage, a trend that was especially evident against Philadelphia.
Jayden Daniels had 32 pass attempts tonight and 24 of them were within five yards of the line of scrimmage.
— Brett Kollmann (@BrettKollmann) November 15, 2024
Daniels has had to face some very difficult matchups and, to his credit, he has succeeded in the category NFL teams care about the most: winning. He has led Washington to a 7-4 start and has the team squarely in the NFC playoff picture. Fantasy wise, there could be a light at the end of the tunnel. This week, the Commanders face off against a reeling Dallas team that presents Daniels with a great opportunity to bounce back. Also, Daniels has one of the best possible matchups in Week 17, with a fantasy championship week home game against Atlanta.
4. Jaylon Johnson IslandLast week, I wrote about Patrick Surtain and his potential impact on Drake London’s fantasy output. I was unfortunately correct with this one (yes, I too have plenty of Drake London teams). He finished with only 3 catches for 61 yards.
This week, we get one of the best CB-WR matchups imaginable with Jaylon Johnson and the Chicago Bears squaring off against Justin Jefferson, Sam Darnold and the Minnesota Vikings. Johnson has been outstanding all season long and will give Jefferson all that he can handle.
Lowest passer rating allowed by CBs this season, via @NextGenStats
1. Jaylon Johnson: 41.8
2. Donte Jackson: 43.9
3. Nate Wiggins: 51.8
4. Marlon Humphrey: 55.6
5. Devon Witherspoon: 59.2
6. D.J. Reed: 60.3
7. Paulson Adebo: 62.4
8. Kamari Lassiter: 62.9
9. Christian… pic.twitter.com/HOxwi0mwlX
— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) November 14, 2024
Johnson and the Bears have been an absolute nightmare for opposing QBs and WRs. Chicago has allowed the second-fewest QB1 weekly finishes (2) and the fewest Top 24 WR weekly finishes (5) this season.
5. Tee Higgins: Prized 2025 free agentTee Higgins’ high-flying season couldn’t have come at a better time. Despite playing in only six games, his performance has been the best of his career. The Bengals franchise-tagged Higgins last offseason, and he is now set to headline the 2025 free-agent class. Not only is he the best wide receiver available by a wide margin, barring any unforeseen cuts, but also he’s the top skill-position player at any position.
While the 2025 class lacks many players capable of making a Derrick Henry– or Saquon Barkley-like impact on fantasy football, Higgins stands out as an instant alpha for multiple offenses. A return to Cincinnati is possible, but that seems increasingly unlikely, with the Bengals needing to allocate significant resources to extend Ja’Marr Chase with a mega deal.
While the sample size is small, Higgins’ results have been spectacular. He is averaging 18.5 PPG — the eighth-highest among all wideouts. He has a 26.5% target share (even higher than Chase), an air yards share of 39.2% and is averaging 81.5 yards (seventh-highest among all receivers).
I get the frustration with availability, but Tee Higgins has been awesome this season when he has dressed.
Over his past past 5 games played, Higgins has 33.3%, 35.9%, 30.4%, 33.3%, and 28.3% of the team targets.
Posting a career-high 2.31 yards per route run.
— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) November 18, 2024
Higgins is only 25 and has the potential not only to elevate virtually any team’s passing game but also to maintain that impact for years to come. So, where could Higgins land?
How about Higgins teaming up with Daniels in Washington? Or becoming Drake Maye’s No. 1 target in a 150-target role with New England? Maybe joining Justin Herbert in Los Angeles? Multiple teams with cap space will be vying for the services of one of this season’s top per-game fantasy football scorers.
Where Higgins plays in 2025 will undoubtedly be one of the biggest storylines of the offseason in fantasy.
6. Los Angeles Rams: WR ConsolidationPuka Nacua and Cooper Kupp returned from injury in Week 8, and ever since the Rams have provided fantasy managers with strong scoring numbers. From Week 8 to present, Kupp is fantasy’s WR3, Nacua is WR12 (including a 2.1 point game shortened by an early ejection for throwing a punch), and Matthew Stafford is QB7. Both WRs have been thriving, and they shined in a systematic beatdown of the New England Patriots last Sunday. Kupp had 6 catches for 106 yards and 2 TDs. Nacua had 7 catches for 123 yards and a TD. If it seemed to you like LA hyper-targeted its WRs, you would be correct.
The most consolidated offenses: Week 11
Combined Target Share Leaders
(Per @FantasyPtsData)
1- Rams 70.3%
(Kupp & Nacua)
2- Seahawks 62.5%
(Smith-Njigba & Metcalf)
3- 49ers 60.7%
(Jennings & Samuel)
4- Bears 58.1%
(Odunze & Allen)
5- Packers 52.9%
(Jacobs & Watson)…
— TheOGfantasyfootball (@TheOGfantasy) November 19, 2024
LA’s dynamic duo led all teams by a considerable margin in target consolidation. Stafford and Sean McVay know what they are working with and they will continue to pepper Kupp and Nacua with targets. Expect more games like this as LA fights for a spot in the playoffs.
7. Kyren Williams’ new streakSo about those LA wideouts. Kyren Williams started off the season on a torrid TD streak that extended back to his breakout performance of 2023. Williams scored a rushing TD in nine straight games, and made it 10 straight games with a score after he caught a TD in LA’s win over Minnesota in Week 8. But since then, Williams has taken a backseat to the Rams aerial attack, with three consecutive weeks of 11.2 PPR points or fewer.
Kyren Williams has been the RB27, RB22 and RB25 since Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua returned
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) November 19, 2024
He scored a season-low 8.7 points in Sunday’s win, his lowest output since Week 5 of last season. Fantasy managers rostering Williams undoubtedly hope this turns around quickly with the fantasy playoffs right around the corner.
8. America’s team is outperforming “America’s Team”The USMNT versus the Dallas Cowboys. No, really. The USMNT won both legs of a Nations League matchup with Jamaica. The second leg was played in Dallas’ AT&T Stadium, with the U.S. winning 4-2. There was plenty of style points in that one, including an absolute rocket from Tim Weah to put the U.S. up 4-1. Theo, what’s up with the soccer talk?
With that win, the U.S. moved to 3-0 on the year in Jerry’s World. The Cowboys lost to Houston on Monday night, dropping their home record to 0-5.
America’s team: The #USMNT will finish 2024 as the team with the most wins at AT&T Stadium.
U.S. Men’s National Team – 3
Many others – 1
Dallas Cowboys – 0 pic.twitter.com/Xth5EZCJR7
— Alex Calabrese (@amcalabrese12) November 19, 2024
9. Bo Nix is good at footballThere have been numerous anti-Bo Nix takes circulating this week. Multiple analytical examinations have attempted to pour cold water on one of fantasy football’s breakout quarterbacks. Some truly remarkable mental gymnastics have been used to poke holes in his recent scoring success. Do we really need to care that he ranks 29th in Yards Per Attempt or 24th in CPOE? Short answer: no, we don’t. Can’t we just enjoy ADP hits when they happen anymore?
Nix carved up the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday as Denver rolled to a 38-6 victory, with Nix throwing four touchdown passes. He now has two top 5 weekly QB finishes since Week 6. Since Week 3, Nix has netted 17 touchdowns with only two interceptions.
Since Week 5, Bo Nix ranks….
4th in fantasy points per game (22.5)
4th in completion percentage over expectation (+5.7%)
3rd in passer rating (106.3)
3rd in catchable throw rate (79.0%)
2nd in turnover-worthy throw rate (0.9%)
all while Denver receivers have dropped a…
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) November 18, 2024
Bo Nix leads the NFL in total pass attempts of 20+ air yards.
His turnover-worthy throw rate on those deep throws (2.2%) is the lowest among 29 qualifiers.
(Source: @FantasyPtsData)
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 21, 2024
The “Nix is not good” crowd (or is it “not elite,” or “not a franchise QB” — I can’t keep track at this point) could be in complete disarray over the next few weeks. Few quarterbacks have better upcoming matchups than Nix. He faces Las Vegas on Sunday, followed by Indianapolis and Cincinnati in the fantasy playoffs.
10. Anthony Richardson’s big comebackThe Anthony Richardson rollercoaster continued on Sunday, this time in a good way. Richardson’s short-lived benching ended after only two games, and he returned Sunday with his best fantasy performance of the season.
Richardson was outstanding, leading a game-winning drive and capping it off by calling his own number for a four-yard touchdown run late in the fourth quarter, putting the Colts up 28-27. The touchdown run capped a flawless fourth-quarter performance, during which he completed 8 of 10 passes for 129 yards and another score.
Anthony Richardson vs the Jets:
88.5% adjusted completion percentage
272 passing yards
27 rushing yards
3 total TDs pic.twitter.com/FFMjZcP6ih
— PFF (@PFF) November 17, 2024
Richardson has tremendous momentum heading into a massive home game against the 9-1 Lions. Richardson and Jonathan Taylor will have their work cut out for them against a Lions defense that has only allowed 948 rushing yards — fifth-fewest in football. Look for Richardson to utilize Josh Downs as much as possible in the passing game. Michael Pittman Jr. led Indianapolis in targets on Sunday, but it was Downs who continued to deliver for fantasy managers, finishing with 5 catches for 84 yards and a TD. The Richardson-Downs connection is red hot.
Josh Downs has been the WR4 and WR11 in his last two games with Anthony Richardson
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) November 21, 2024
11. Rome Odunze: Target share risingThe Bears moved on from offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, and new OC Thomas Brown showed some signs of rational coaching in his first game at the helm. Notably, Chicago targeted its WRs at an extremely high level, with rookie Rome Odunze leading the way. Keenan Allen, DJ Moore and Odunze combined for an 80.7% target share.
Rome Odunze hit a season high 32% target share against the Packers on Sunday.
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) November 18, 2024
There was also a notable change with Moore’s deployment. Brown used him almost exclusively around the line of scrimmage.
There was a sizable shift in the way Thomas Brown used DJ Moore in his first game as the Bears’ OC:
Moore in Week 11: an average depth of target of just 0.86 yards with 56 yards after the catch
Moore in Weeks 1-10: an average depth of target over 8.3 yards and 176 yards after…
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) November 20, 2024
Neither Odunze (WR34) nor Moore (WR29) made much of a difference in fantasy, but a dedication to getting them more involved on a weekly basis is a sign of potential good things to come. Caleb Williams had his highest passing yardage total and completion percentage since Week 6 — albeit with 0 TD passes and a QB22 finish. And, hey, at least we don’t have to see another week of a Shane Waldron-led offense.
12. The Ballad of Ben JohnsonThe days are numbered for Ben Johnson in Detroit as the Lions offensive coordinator. He will almost certainly be offered a lucrative head coaching position by one of many teams looking for an upgrade. Replacing him will be no easy task, as he has proven to be one of the best offensive coordinators in recent memory. But whoever is calling the shots next season in Detroit will have an embarrassment of riches at their disposal.
The Lions scored 50+ points for the second time this season in a 52-6 beatdown of Jacksonville. Detroit’s 46-point margin of victory is the largest in franchise history. The Lions have outscored opponents by 159 points this season. Johnson’s offense thrives on balance, ranking sixth in passing yards per game and third in rushing yards.
Multiple players put up huge numbers. David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs finished as RB1s. If the season ended today, they would become the first pair of RB teammates to finish as co-RB1s since Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram in 2017. Big plays have been a staple of the Lions’ attack, and Gibbs continued that trend with an explosive catch-and-run:
Jahmyr Gibbs reached a top speed of 21.80 mph on his 54-yard catch and run late in the second quarter, the 6th-fastest speed by a ball carrier this season.
Gibbs is now responsible for two of the top 6 speeds this season (22.03 mph in Week 1).#JAXvsDET | #OnePride pic.twitter.com/WhaM7coQsx
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 17, 2024
Jameson Williams returned from his two-game suspension and finished with a career-high 124 receiving yards. However, the storyline to monitor is Amon-Ra St. Brown’s touchdown streak. He caught two touchdowns on Sunday, extending his scoring streak to eight games — third longest since the NFL merger in 1970.
ANOTHER WEEK, ANOTHER TOUCHDOWN FROM AMON-RA ST. BROWN
His 8th consecutive game with a TD pic.twitter.com/5XDIGTTPug
— DraftKings (@DraftKings) November 17, 2024
Appreciate Ben Johnson while you can — this has been a match made in fantasy heaven.
13. What time should we serve Thanksgiving dinner?For the ardent NFL fan or fantasy manager, Thanksgiving dinner often interrupts a perfectly good day of football. But this year, there’s a window of opportunity: 4:30 pm ET is officially the perfect start time for dinner.
Cooper Rush versus Tommy DeVito on Thanksgiving Day.
What a scene. https://t.co/RTDjlYkLOf
— RJ Ochoa (@rjochoa) November 18, 2024
The Giants have replaced Daniel Jones with Tommy DeVito, who now faces off against Cooper Rush in one of the worst Thanksgiving Day quarterback matchups in recent memory. Well, anyway, enjoy the time spent with family and friends. Hopefully, when you return to the TV sometime in the second quarter, Malik Nabers, CeeDee Lamb and Tyrone Tracy Jr. have scored us some fantasy points. Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!
(Top photo of Tee Higgins: Nick Cammett/Getty Images)
