Fantasy football: 10 players who'll out/underperform projections in ...

Player projections are solid barometers for week-to-week fantasy expectations -- but they aren't always right. We're here to help you navigate those numbers and make the optimal decisions for your fantasy lineup by breaking down a handful of NFL.com fantasy point projections each week.

HIGHER

PROJECTED POINTS: 17.7

Michelle: To be completely frank, this fantasy projection is just disrespectful. Richardson has scored 20.9, 29.6 and 26.1 fantasy points (standard scoring) during the three full games played in his brief career. Last year in Week 2, Richardson left the game prior to halftime with a concussion and still managed to score 17.7 points.

Despite a change at coordinator, the Packers' defense did not look improved in Week 1 compared to last season, allowing the Eagles to score 34 points and record 410 total yards. Plus, the Colts should win the time-of-possession battle in their Week 2 matchup, with Malik Willis in line to start at QB for the Packers in place of an injured Jordan Love.

PROJECTED POINTS: 13.6

Matt: This is Kamara's second straight appearance in the HIGHER/LOWER column, and he might be a consistent resident until the projections adjust appropriately. He crushed his 15-point projection with 22.0 in the Week 1 blowout win over the Panthers, logging five catches for "just" 27 receiving yards and compiling 83 yards and a TD on the ground.

In what should be a much more negative game script on the road in Dallas, I expect Kamara's rushing/receiving splits to swap. He averaged a whopping 7.7 catches and 45 receiving yards per game in Saints losses last year, which would nearly get him to this projection alone. Add in a tiny handful of rushing production and you've got an easy HIGHER for the second straight week.

PROJECTED POINTS: 16.1

Michelle: It turns out Kyren Williams fantasy managers were a bit too worried about the prospect of rookie Blake Corum stealing the RB1's work -- Williams played 91 percent of the Rams' offensive snaps in Week 1, while Corum didn't get a single rep on offense. Last season, Williams was one of the most elite fantasy backs, scoring more than 16.1 points in nine of 12 games played, including six of his last seven contests. 

In a tough Week 1 matchup, Williams scored just 14.4 fantasy points against the Lions' stout defensive line, but he will see a much more friendly front this Sunday. The Cardinals allowed the Bills to record 130 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns against them in their 2024 season opener, after yielding the most rushing yards and most fantasy points to the RB position in 2023. Williams scored 38.4 and 21.8 fantasy points in his two matchups against Arizona last year.

PROJECTED POINTS: 12.5

Michelle: It was a rough Week 1 performance for the entire Browns offense against the smothering Cowboys defense, but I expect to see a much better passing attack against the Jaguars' weak secondary this Sunday. Jacksonville was one of the worst passing defenses in the NFL in 2023, and the Jaguars followed that up by allowing Tua Tagovailoa to throw for a league-high 338 yards in their 2024 season opener. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle both eclipsed 100 receiving yards and logged 16-plus fantasy points in the game. 

Cooper had a team-high nine targets in Week 1, but finished with just two receptions for 16 yards. With Browns' TE David Njoku out with an injury this weekend, Cooper's target share should be incredibly high in a great fantasy matchup. Last season, Cooper hit 14-plus fantasy points in four of the five games in which Deshaun Watson had more than five pass attempts.

PROJECTED POINTS: 13.0

Matt: It was a rough Week 1 for anyone who spent their first or second pick on Harrison. Just one catch and a couple big misses by Kyler Murray resulted in a dismal 1.4 fantasy points for the hyped rookie wideout. He ran 33 routes (most on the team), but was targeted on just nine percent of them (unsustainably low). Unsurprisingly, head coach Jonathan Gannon said on Monday that the Cardinals have to "get him going", stressing that there are different ways to align and deploy him in order to do so, including getting him "on the move."

In this divisional matchup with the Rams, who were just torched by Detroit WR Jameson Williams on the outside, I expect Arizona to do everything necessary to activate the team's best weapon. Harrison just needs six or seven catches and 60-to-70 yards to beat this projection.

PROJECTED POINTS: 8.4

Matt: He was the breakout star of Week 1, the highest-scoring tight end in fantasy and the top waiver-wire pickup in most leagues … but can Likely actually deliver on the hype in Week 2 and beyond? My answer is yes. While he did benefit from the Chiefs’ particular defensive focus on Mark Andrews, Likely is too talented and athletic to disappear from the offense when Andrews re-establishes his role (which he will do).

I won’t be projecting Likely for 26.1 points again ... maybe not even for half that number. But he doesn’t even have to crack double digits to outperform his projection -- all he really needs is four catches. Easy. He should be started as a TE1 until further notice.

LOWER

PROJECTED POINTS: 17.2

Matt: The 49ers handled the Jets in Week 1 thanks to the ground-and-pound dominance of Jordan Mason (filling in admirably for the injured Christian McCaffrey) and the offensive line, leaving Purdy with just 10.3 fantasy points. I don't see much reason for a change in philosophy this week against the Vikings, who have an improved defense but are clear underdogs. Nick Bosa and Co. should make mincemeat of Sam Darnold, allowing the Niners to establish an early lead and run out the clock with the ground game once again.

Purdy could find the end zone this Sunday, but that still wouldn't be enough of a boost to hit his projected total. I think he has a fine game -- 215 yards, one or two TDs, no INTs -- but comes up a little short of 17.2 points.

PROJECTED POINTS: 17.5

Matt: Week 1 was a disaster for this squad. Joe Burrow seemed hampered and ineffective, Ja'Marr Chase had just 12.2 fantasy points and the team only managed 10 real-life points in an embarrassing loss to the Patriots. With Tee Higgins likely to miss another start in Week 2, the hope for Chase is that he can bounce back against the Chiefs ... but I'm not buying the hope just yet.

Some portion of Chase's disappointing output in Week 1 had to have been tied to the lingering effects of his offseason holdout, which means things might not fully correct for a couple weeks. I need to see him and Burrow fire on all cylinders in 2024 before I feel confident about projecting a high-end WR1 performance.

PROJECTED POINTS: 13.9

Michelle: It was a fruitful Texans debut for Diggs, who found the end zone twice last Sunday against the Colts. However, he had just 33 receiving yards and saw a grand total of 9 air yards on intended targets, while teammates Nico Collins and Tank Dell each eclipsed 100 yards in this metric. 

I expect Collins and Dell to continue to get the majority of downfield opportunities in Houston's offense, with Diggs being a touchdown-or-bust fantasy asset throughout the season. The Bears have allowed just five receiving touchdowns to wide receivers over their last seven games, dating back to Week 12 of the 2023 season. Titans wide receivers combined to score just 15.9 fantasy points as a group in their 2024 season opener against Chicago's strong secondary.

PROJECTED POINTS: 13.4

Michelle: The Saints put up 47 points against the Panthers in Week 1, with Derek Carr throwing three touchdown passes in the game. Yet, Olave finished the day with just two targets and 2.1 fantasy points. The Cowboys' defense looked incredibly strong in their season opener against the Browns, creating a ton of pressure on Deshaun Watson while limiting Amari Cooper and Jerry Jeudy to a combined five receptions for 41 yards on 17 targets (though Jeudy did score a touchdown). 

New Orleans' offense found success by spreading the ball around in Week 1, and I don't expect the Saints to abandon that plan this weekend. Olave is a low-upside, high-risk fantasy option in Week 2.