The Biggest Start/Sit Decisions for Week 12 (Fantasy Football)

November 22, 2024

Welcome to Week 12’s most impactful start/sit decisions! While you are used to hearing from the fantastic Brittney Foxworth, she is unfortunately taking a well-deserved week off. In her absence, I will be stepping in to guide you through this crucial stretch. Brittney will be back next week to resume her usual brilliance, but for now, I promise you are in capable hands.

With six teams on bye (Bengals, Bills, Falcons, Jaguars, Jets, and Saints), this week brings one of the toughest challenges of the season. Combine that with those agonizing start/sit debates that always linger until kickoff, and the stakes feel even higher. Do not let the stress get to you and drag you down the rabbit hole of a last-minute tilt. We will cut through the noise and break down which players belong in your lineup and which are better suited for your bench, giving you the edge you need to win Week 12.

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Bo Nix or Kyler Murray?

If you had posed this question before the season, most would have laughed at the idea that starting Bo Nix over Kyler Murray could be a legitimate debate. Yet here we are in Week 12, and deciding between the two feels like a dilemma that could genuinely go either way. On the season, Nix is averaging just 0.1 more fantasy points per game than Murray, even factoring in the early struggles Nix faced as a rookie.

Looking at recent trends, Nix has been the more consistent performer, averaging 23.22 fantasy points over his last four games compared to Murray’s 19.22. That gap is largely due to Murray’s Week 9 dud against Chicago, where he managed fewer than five fantasy points. Unfortunately, that sums up Murray’s 2024 fantasy campaign: flashes of brilliance mixed with maddening inconsistency. Both players, however, are coming off some of their best performances of the season. As dual-threat quarterbacks, they can rack up points through the air and on the ground, making them high-upside options despite their volatility in the passing game.

This week, Nix gets a slight edge with a matchup against the struggling Raiders defense, which allows 19.3 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Murray, meanwhile, faces a Seahawks defense that gives up 17.3 points per game, slightly worse than the league average. Both players are on the road, but weather could play a small role. Light rain is expected in Seattle, which might prompt Arizona to lean more on their run game, led by James Conner and the emerging Trey Benson. Nix will not face any weather concerns while playing indoors in Las Vegas. That could prove significant, especially with Denver’s run game struggling and leaving the rookie quarterback as the focal point of their offense.

Verdict: While I love both options this week and have them extremely close in my personal rankings, I would ultimately slightly favor Nix over Murray. This decision will likely come down to your appetite for risk. Nix offers steadier production in an extremely favorable matchup, while Murray carries slightly higher volatility but always has the potential for a massive game.

Jauan Jennings or Calvin Ridley?

While these names might not jump off the page, both players have a strong chance to deliver WR2 value for the rest of the season. Each offers unique upside and opportunity, making them valuable assets for your fantasy lineup. For Jauan Jennings, his value skyrocketed after Brandon Aiyuk’s season-ending injury. Since San Francisco’s bye, Jennings has become a key part of the offense, earning 11 targets in back-to-back games. He turned those opportunities into consecutive performances with seven or more receptions and over 90 receiving yards. Jennings even found the end zone last week, showcasing the kind of fantasy ceiling few anticipated. He has stepped into Aiyuk’s role flawlessly and is arguably more productive in it, much to the delight of fantasy managers. However, it is worth noting that George Kittle missed last week’s game, and Deebo Samuel has been in a slump. If both regain form, Jennings could see fewer opportunities. Even so, his role in the offense appears secure, and as long as Brock Purdy is healthy, Jennings looks like a reliable “set it and forget it” option moving forward.

Calvin Ridley, on the other hand, has endured a streaky season, largely due to inconsistent quarterback play. Despite this, he remains the clear top option in Tennessee’s offense and has been heating up lately. While his Week 11 performance was modest, Ridley saw at least eight targets and surpassed 70 receiving yards in each of the three games prior. In Week 12, Ridley faces a more challenging matchup than it appears on paper, facing a Houston Texans defense that has been getting stronger, despite being surprisingly favorable against wide receivers on the season. Still, with Tennessee likely to be playing from behind, game script could lead to a solid target share.

Jennings will also have a tough matchup against Green Bay, one of the league’s top defenses this year. Despite that, San Francisco’s offense is capable of overcoming difficult matchups, and if Purdy’s shoulder injury does not limit him, Jennings should deliver another strong performance. Both players come with pros and cons, but they bring enough opportunity and upside to remain valuable fantasy options this week and beyond.

Verdict: While it is a close call, I ultimately agree with the Ballers’ decision to favor Jennings this week. San Francisco is in a must-win situation, fighting for a playoff spot in a crucial matchup, while Tennessee has struggled all season. This game could quickly turn into a bloodbath, which would likely hurt the fantasy production of all Tennessee players. If news breaks that Purdy’s shoulder will limit his performance, I would be open to pivoting toward Ridley. But based on the current information, Jennings appears to be the better play this week.

Bucky Irving or Chuba Hubbard?

After a slow start to his rookie season, Bucky Irving has quietly emerged as a highly productive fantasy asset. Over the past five games, he has scored double-digit fantasy points in four of them, with three performances exceeding 15 points. Irving has proven to be a more efficient and productive runner than his backfield counterpart, Rachaad White, earning an increased workload as a result. While White remains involved in the passing game and has been a frequent visitor to the end zone in recent weeks, Irving’s expanded role makes him a valuable weekly fantasy contributor.

On the other hand, Chuba Hubbard has been one of the season’s most pleasant surprises. Despite Carolina’s offensive struggles, the second-year back has been a bright spot, ranking just outside the top 10 in fantasy scoring among running backs, averaging 14.7 fantasy points per game. He is coming off back-to-back 20+ fantasy point performances, including a career-high 28-carry game. However, that came against the New York Giants, a much easier matchup than the one he faces in Week 12. Hubbard will go up against the Kansas City Chiefs, who have allowed the fewest fantasy points to running backs this season. With limited scoring opportunities expected for Carolina, Hubbard will face significant obstacles in this matchup. To make matters more challenging, rookie running back Jonathon Brooks is set to make his season debut. Brooks, the first running back selected in this year’s draft, is likely to see some touches in his first game, further complicating Hubbard’s workload. Meanwhile, Irving will face the same team Hubbard just rushed for over 150 yards against. 

Verdict: While Hubbard’s backfield competition remains lighter even with Brooks’ debut, his tough matchup against the Chiefs makes him a risky start. Given these factors, I would lean toward starting Irving this week. While there is a chance White vultures some touchdown opportunities, Irving should still get enough touches to be highly productive in this favorable matchup.

Jonnu Smith or Sam LaPorta?

Here’s another one of those start/sit decisions that, if you had seen it before the season, would have had you laughing uncomfortably. While Sam LaPorta was last year’s TE1, the 2024 season has not been as kind to his fantasy outlook. LaPorta is averaging just 7.5 fantasy points per game, with only three touchdowns on the year, and has not been a consistent part of the Lions’ high-powered offense. Detroit’s success often leads to LaPorta being an afterthought in the target hierarchy, something that has not negatively affected the team but has left fantasy managers frustrated and scrambling. 

However, since the Week 5 bye, LaPorta has shown signs of life, posting top-10 finishes in three of his last five games. The downside? In the other two games, he finished as TE29 and TE34, demonstrating his boom-or-bust outlook despite playing the majority of snaps. On paper, his matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars looks like a great opportunity, but there is also a chance the Lions dominate so thoroughly that they lean heavily on the run game. This could limit LaPorta’s chances of making an impact, making him feel touchdown-dependent for any significant fantasy output.

On the flip side, Jonnu Smith has found his groove in Miami’s offense since their Week 6 bye and has become a reliable fantasy option. Over his last five games, Smith has averaged more than six targets per game and has been highly productive in his expanded role. This includes a TE1 finish in Week 7 and a TE2 finish last week when he racked up over 100 yards and two touchdowns. Smith’s clearly defined role in Miami’s offense makes him feel like a safer bet, with a high ceiling as demonstrated last week.

Verdict: Despite a slightly tougher matchup, Smith’s increased utilization makes him a more reliable option than LaPorta this week. LaPorta missed last week’s game with a shoulder injury, and while his practice reports have been encouraging, that uncertainty adds even more hesitation when considering him over a more consistent and healthy option like Smith. While LaPorta certainly has the talent to break out if given the right opportunities, Smith’s role and recent form make him the safer play.

If you have any more crucial decisions heading into Week 12, check out the Fantasy Footballers Start/Sit Tool and Mike’s Sunday Morning Livestream. May you make all the right lineup decisions and the force be with you in Week 12!