Daniel McDonnell – why Nations League results matter to Ireland in ...

While the visit of England is a big game in its own right, it’s also an important one as it kicks off a four-team group that also features Finland and Greece. The results will influence Ireland’s chances of qualifying for both the 2026 World Cup and the all-important 2028 Euros, which Ireland will co-host. Here’s why.

What’s the story with Ireland’s group?

Ireland are in League B of the Nations League, the second division. England are there because they finished bottom of their League A group in the last renewal, the 2022 version where Ireland finished third in their B group behind Ukraine and Scotland. League B winners went up to League A. The bottom team in the League B groups dropped to League C.

OK, but how does it influence major tournament qualification?

The Nations League decides the teams who make the play-offs after falling short in regular qualifying. Ireland missed out on a play-off for the Euros because our Nations League results left us placed 26th in UEFA’s rankings – teams placed 23rd or higher who fell short in regular qualification had the insurance of a play-off.

Didn’t Georgia qualify from League C?

Yes, this is a path that only exists for the Euros years. UEFA give the four League C group winners a chance to play for one place in the tournament. But this door isn’t open in the World Cup cycle.

So cut to the chase here. Why do these matches matter?

There are 16 places for European teams available in the 2026 World Cup, an increase from 13 because the competition is expanding to 48 teams. Twelve of those will automatically go to the winners of the traditional qualifying groups. The remaining four spots will be awarded via a 16-team play-off process that will produce four teams – it will comprise the 12 group runners up and four Nations League group winners who haven’t progressed through regular qualifying.

Simplify this for me . . .

If Ireland win this group, they will start World Cup qualifying with the insurance of a play-off.

But that’s highly unlikely – is there any other reason to do well?

Yes. Results will also determine the seeding for the World Cup qualifying draw. If Ireland do well, they have a better chance of being second seeds in December.

Hang on – there are 12 World Cup qualifying groups?

Yes, this is another Nations League-related change. The old format of ten qualifying groups (five with six teams and five with five) has been replaced by 12 groups (six with five teams, six with just four teams). This is because of a desire to have extra Nations League games in 2025.

Extra Nations League games?

Indeed. UEFA are introducing more jeopardy to the Nations League division. While the four top teams in League A have played a finals competition after the previous iterations, this series is broadening out. The eight top-performing sides in Group A will go into a quarter-final round played next March, with the final four competing in the June decider. But there’ll be more action in March in the form of promotion/relegation play-offs, with the third-placed teams of League A facing the runners-up of League B for a League A spot and the third-placed teams of League B facing the runners-up of League C for a League B spot

Simplify this in Irish terms?

If Ireland come second in their group, they’ll have a two-leg play-off next March for promotion to League A. If they finish third, they’ll face a relegation play-off to avoid League C.

But would dropping to League C be a good thing?

There’s an argument that dropping down a level before a Euros cycle gives you a better chance – but anything other than top spot leaves you screwed. Middle-tier League B status gives the relevant team a better chance of a play-off back door and a kinder seeding for regular qualifying. Starting the next cycle in League A would nearly guarantee a Euros play-off.

The other issue with 2028 in mind is that two places are likely to be held back for hosts Ireland, England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland in the event they don’t qualify. In a scenario where four teams are vying for those tickets, it’s expected they will go to the two highest-ranked teams in the Nations League ladder.

So it’s better to do well?

Yes. For the sake of 2026 and 2028.