No BTTS Bets: Clean Sheets Influence Nations League Betting

October’s international break sees teams take on their next couple of Nations League fixtures. Let's take a look at patterns from last month’s matches for more informed Nations League betting this week.

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at the time of publishing and subject to change. Odds taken on 08/10/2024 from the official bet365 site.

Croatia, Switzerland, Finland, Hungary, Ireland, and Serbia combined for two goals in the last international break. There were 20 teams who conceded one or no goals. Of the 26 match day two fixtures, only nine saw both teams find the net. Exactly half of those matches produced under 2.5 goals.

Along with both teams scoring being a rare occurrence, it’s also noticeable how many heavy victories there were. Taking ‘no’ on BTTS would have been the more informed decision over the first two match days, but a healthy portion of fixtures were still hitting the over. Only 27 of the 52 matches went under 2.5 total goals.

Of the 52 fixtures, 17 matches saw one team score three or more goals. When teams were in the ascendancy, they often took full advantage. Perhaps this will point bettors towards betting favourites on the handicap, but for us, it leads to being wary of taking the under while liking the look of both teams to score – no.

Looking ahead to match days three and four, the steelier defensive teams are obviously a good option when it comes to BTTS – no. England registering a win to nil over Greece feels like a more likely outcome. Elsewhere, the goal-shy duo of Finland and Ireland are unlikely to treat us to a high-scoring thriller in Helsinki.

Across a combined 360 minutes of football, Serbia and Switzerland mustered a single goal. Both teams have scored just twice in Serbia’s last nine matches, with three clean sheets in their last six outings. The odds on BTTS – no when these teams meet later this week represent competitive value.

A draw would be a satisfactory result for both Italy and Belgium. Belgium’s attack is missing Kevin De Bruyne and has been ineffective over the last 12 months. One goal either way could be enough to decide this one.

While Hungary conceded five to Germany and the Netherlands was involved in two high-scoring matches, the Hungarians' failure to score in both fixtures at least provokes some interest in this market. The Netherlands winning to nil is hardly far-fetched. Likewise, Denmark is over matched against European champions Spain. A routine win for La Roja in Murcia seems inevitable. Spain winning 2-0 seems the most likely outcome.