Newcastle vs Leicester City Prediction and Preview | The Analyst
Football
May 22, 2023
Eddie Howe’s men need just a single point to seal a top-four place, while the Foxes could do with all three to fight relegation. It’s our Newcastle United vs Leicester City prediction and preview.
Newcastle United vs Leicester City: Quick Stats Newcastle given a 69.7% chance of claiming at least a point on Monday to secure UEFA Champions League football next season. Leicester City have won just one of their last 15 games in all competitions, losing 11 of those. The Foxes have conceded their most league goals away from home in a 38-game campaign since 1914-15. Match PreviewIt is a pivotal moment for both clubs. Newcastle United are on the verge of qualifying for the UEFA Champions League group stage for the first time since the 2002-03 season, with the Saudi-backed club appearing to skip a few steps in what was supposed to be a slow-build to the top of the game.
Leicester City, on the other hand, could end up dropping out of the Premier League altogether just seven years after shocking the world by winning it. Claudio Ranieri’s infectious personality and Jamie Vardy banging them in for fun seem a long time ago.
Eddie Howe’s side need just a point to guarantee a top-four finish following Liverpool’s 1-1 draw with Aston Villa on Saturday, while Dean Smith’s men could climb out of the relegation zone on goal difference with a win at St. James’ Park after Everton’s late 1-1 draw at Wolverhampton Wanderers and Leeds United’s 3-1 loss at West Ham United over the weekend.
This will be Newcastle’s final home game of the season, which bodes well for them as they have won it in seven of the last nine seasons, with the only exceptions being consecutive defeats against Liverpool in 2018-19 and 2019-20.
Leicester, on the other hand, haven’t won their final away league game in any of the last eight seasons (D3 L5) since beating Huddersfield Town 2-0 in their 2013-14 promotion campaign in the Championship. They have also lost three of their last four Premier League games against Newcastle (W1), more than they had in their previous 10 meetings (W8 D0 L2).
Leicester have really struggled to stop the flow of goals in away games in the 2022-23 campaign, conceding 41 on the road in the Premier League. That is their most conceded in a season since leaking 44 during the 2010-11 Championship campaign. In a 38-game season, it is the most Leicester have let in since 1914-15 (47).
While Howe has never lost a home Premier League match against Leicester (W4 D2), winning the last three in a row, his opposite number Smith has drawn all three of his away Premier League games against Newcastle 1-1, doing so with Aston Villa in 2019-20 and 2020-21 and with Norwich City last season.
Last Meeting Newcastle United 2-0 Leicester City: 10 January 2023 (League Cup quarter-final)
On their way to reaching the League Cup final, Newcastle had to see off Leicester at St. James’ Park in the last eight, and they did so with relative ease.
After a goalless first half, the hosts kept the pressure up and it finally told just before the hour mark when Leicester failed on more than one occasion to clear the ball, allowing Dan Burn to bundle his way into the penalty area before he slid his finish under Danny Ward.
The win was confirmed in the 72nd minute when Miguel Almirón fed Joelinton down the left, and the Brazilian also finished well to make it 2-0.
Newcastle also won the reverse league fixture 3-0 at the King Power Stadium on Boxing Day and are looking to complete their first Premier League double over Leicester since 1994-95.
Recent FormIt looked like there might be a late-season wobble from Newcastle after they followed up winning eight from nine (L1) by losing at home to Arsenal and dropping a further two points at Leeds.
However, Thursday’s 4-1 thrashing of Brighton put them right back in control and they now sit just a single point away from clinching a top-four finish.
Much like The Boomtown Rats, Leicester presumably don’t like Mondays. Having played Everton, Fulham and Liverpool, drawing one and losing two, the Foxes are set to become the first Premier League team ever to play on four consecutive Mondays.
Since a 4-1 home win against Tottenham Hotspur in February, Leicester have won just once in 15 games in all competitions, losing 11 of those (D3). A 2-1 home win against Wolves gave them hope, before back-to-back draws against relegation rivals Everton and Leeds were followed by a 5-3 loss at Fulham and last week’s 3-0 reverse at home to Liverpool.
Key Players Newcastle United: Callum WilsonIt feels as though Callum Wilson has been overlooked in some quarters for Newcastle’s success, with the likes of Nick Pope, Kieran Trippier, Bruno Guimarães and Alexander Isak rightly getting many of the plaudits.
Wilson has 18 goals in 29 appearances in the Premier League this season, with just 20 of those being starts.
He has played a big part in their last two outings as well, scoring both penalties in the 2-2 draw at Leeds, before scoring and assisting late on against Brighton to cement their 4-1 win on Thursday. Against a vulnerable Leicester defence, don’t be surprised to see him push to reach 20 league goals for the first time since the 2014-15 season with Bournemouth in the Championship.
Though many assume James Maddison will stay in the Premier League even if Leicester don’t – with Newcastle one of the many teams regularly linked with him – the player still likely won’t want a relegation on his CV.
Maddison has been involved in 11 away goals in the league this season (six goals, five assists), and is one of only two Leicester players to have both scored five and assisted five in away games in a Premier League season, along with Riyad Mahrez in 2017-18 (six goals, six assists).
Harvey Barnes may have scored more than Maddison overall (12-10), but the latter is comfortably ahead for goal involvements (19-13) and has more attacking sequence involvements (130) than any of his teammates. You would assume anything creative for the visitors will have to come through him again on Monday.
Opta’s supercomputer believes this one could be closer than most would anticipate. Whether it’s the nerves of the hosts about finding that final point or the determination to stay up that surely will have to come from the Foxes before it’s too late, this might be a somewhat even contest.
Newcastle are still favourites to win their final home game of the season, with a 42% chance of success, but Leicester are considered to have a 30.3% chance of earning what would be a massive three points.
The draw comes in at a 27.7% possibility, which would be a better point for Newcastle than Leicester, but whatever happens on Monday, Smith’s side will still have an opportunity to stay up on the final day of the season. Our season simulator gives them a 13.9% chance of saving themselves, while the Magpies have just a 0.8% chance of somehow messing up Champions League qualification from here.
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