Judging biggest overreactions for NFL Week 15 - ESPN

By the time Week 15 rolls around, the weekly overreactions that drive NFL conversation don't all feel like overreactions anymore. We have data now -- months' worth of it. And we have significant sample sizes on which to base our opinions of players and teams.

So yeah, you have my permission to write off the Falcons, because a serious team would not lose 9-7 to the Panthers in Week 15 in the middle of a division race, no matter how sad the division race. You have perfectly good reason, if you wish, to worry about the Cowboys' run defense. Playing without Johnathan Hankins, they got lit up by James Cook the week after their thorough takedown of division rival Eagles. And with Zack Martin hurt, the offense may have some reason to worry, too. You want to tell me the 49ers look unbeatable, the Bears look like they're trying to save their coach's job and the Jets were never going to play well enough for us to find out whether Aaron Rodgers really could make it back? Check, check and check.

Things start to crystallize this time of year. That said, there's still a lot to sort out over the season's final three weeks. And while we may think we know what to think about some of these teams, a few still have some questions. And that means we can still come up with overreactions and judge big potential takeaways off the slate of games.

Jump to: Stefanski as COY frontrunner? Rams leading the 7-7 mix? Chiefs can trust at least one of their WRs? Pierce as Raiders' full-time coach? Mayfield, Minshew starting next season?

Stefanski's Browns improved to 9-5 on Sunday when they held on against those feisty Bears. They got a little bit lucky, sure, when the Hail Mary pass rolled off the chest of Darnell Mooney in the end zone. But a win is a win, and the Browns have nine of them in spite of starting four different quarterbacks this season. Stefanski's bunch has weathered season-ending injuries to running back Nick Chubb, quarterback Deshaun Watson, their two starting offensive tackles and one of their replacements -- and that's just on the offensive side of the ball.

In spite of all of that, Cleveland currently occupies the No. 5 spot in the AFC playoff field with four games to go. They have the same record as the Chiefs, for goodness' sake!

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

Oh, there are plenty of candidates, don't get me wrong. In no particular order, you could make a case for the Colts' Shane Steichen, the Texans' DeMeco Ryans, the Lions' Dan Campbell, the Cowboys' Mike McCarthy, the Bengals' Zac Taylor, the Dolphins' Mike McDaniel ... I'm not going to list all of them, and I'm sure some people will be upset with me for omitting their guy, but you get the picture. It's a crowded race.

This award tends to go to the coach of a team that exceeds its preseason expectations. That may make Ryans or Steichen the leading candidates. But if you believe that shouldn't be the main criterion for the award, and you assess the way in which the coaches manage their teams through the difficulties that the season presents, you have to tip your cap to the way Stefanski has held things together in Cleveland. Right now, he's winning with Joe Flacco at quarterback ... in the year 2023. Think about that.

One of the league's youngest teams, the Rams entered this season with relatively low expectations from outside observers. The core of the team that won the Super Bowl two seasons ago was thinned out significantly, with quarterback Matthew Stafford, receiver Cooper Kupp and defensive tackle Aaron Donald left to help teach a bunch of first- and second-year guys how to win on the fly.

The Rams were 3-6 at the bye, but they have gone 4-1 since -- including a victory over Washington on Sunday -- and the lone loss in that stretch was their wild Week 14 overtime loss in Baltimore. Stafford has multiple passing touchdowns in four straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL. You could make the case that no one in the NFC outside of San Francisco has been playing better over the past five weeks.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

I'm not 100% sure the Rams have enough on defense to scare anyone come postseason time. If the season ended right now, for example, they'd play a first-round playoff game against the Eagles in Philadelphia. Is anyone saying they'd like them to beat the Eagles on the road?

But what they showed in Week 14 against the Ravens, even though they ended up losing, was that Stafford and the offense can go toe-to-toe with anybody right now. They may need to win shootouts, and that's a tough way to win in the postseason. But could they throw enough points on the scoreboard to take out one of the top NFC contenders if said contender had an off night? They have a coach, a quarterback and an excellent defensive lineman who won the Super Bowl 22 months ago.

play

0:21

Panthers top Falcons on FG as time expires

Eddy Pineiro's 23-yard field goal as time expires lifts the Panthers to a 9-7 win over the Falcons.

I don't know who's going to be excited about drawing this team in the first round. I'd definitely rather play the Vikings, Buccaneers or Saints, if we're talking about 7-7 teams.

The guy we're talking about is rookie Rashee Rice, the 55th overall pick in this year's draft. Rice had nine catches (on nine targets) for 91 yards and a touchdown in the Chiefs' get-right victory over the Patriots on Sunday in Foxborough. He's averaging 9.5 targets and eight catches per game over the Chiefs' past four games, and he has caught a touchdown pass in three of them. On the season, Patrick Mahomes is completing 80% of his passes when throwing to Rice. When he targets any other WR, that drops to 57%.

A week after wide receiver Kadarius Toney cost the Chiefs a win by lining up offsides on a crucial fourth-quarter play, Toney frustrated Mahomes with mistakes again. A fourth-quarter target went through his hands and resulted in an interception, and Toney caught two of four targets for 5 yards. The Chiefs had high hopes for Toney as a No. 1 wideout this season, and he has not lived up to them.

Rice has also outplayed 2022 second-round pick Skyy Moore and veteran Marquez Valdes-Scantling. And in a year when the Chiefs have struggled to find anything consistent from their wide receiver corps, Rice is starting to look like someone they might be able to count on down the stretch.

Verdict: OVERREACTION

It's tempting to seize on anything positive, considering the way this season has gone for Kansas City at the wide receiver position. But Rice didn't play anything resembling a flawless game Sunday. He committed a crucial penalty that killed a Chiefs drive in the first quarter, and he also had what likely would have been a fumble had the Patriots challenged the call.

The Chiefs beat an overmatched New England team Sunday to avoid a third straight loss -- and Rice did put up numbers. But with three games left in regulation and the very real possibility of having to go on the road in the playoffs for the first time since Mahomes became their quarterback, the Chiefs still don't have much they can fully trust in the passing game outside of tight end Travis Kelce.

Pierce's Raiders opened Week 15 with a 63-21 victory Thursday night against the Chargers -- a performance so dominating that Chargers coach Brandon Staley and GM Tom Telesco got fired the very next morning. The Raiders are 3-3 since firing Josh McDaniels and elevating Pierce from linebackers coach to head coach, and at 6-8 overall, they're still technically hanging on the fringes of the AFC playoff race. Being two games out with three to play makes the postseason unlikely, but Thursday was a heck of a bounceback after a three-game losing streak and a 3-0 loss to Minnesota four days earlier.

The Raiders had scored 126 points in eight games under McDaniels this season. And in six games under Pierce, they have now scored 139.

VERDICT: NOT AN OVERREACTION

Two years ago, when the Raiders rallied behind interim coach Rich Bisaccia to make the playoffs after Jon Gruden resigned, Raiders owner Mark Davis decided to hire McDaniels instead of keeping Bisaccia, whom the players wanted to stay. That memory is fresh in Davis' mind, and if the Raiders finish the season strong, he may decide he doesn't want to repeat the same mistake.

Next year's Raiders have a lot of questions to answer, chief among them who'll play quarterback for them in the short-term and (hopefully) the long-term. But the defense has played especially well since Pierce became the coach, and there's evidence to support the idea that the team has responded to him. Davis will surely do a full search, but Pierce has shown enough to deserve to be a part of it. And it's not out of the question he could emerge the winner.

Minshew was 18-for-28 for 215 yards and three touchdown passes Saturday in the Colts' comeback victory over the Steelers. The Colts lost their first three games with Minshew starting after Anthony Richardson went out with a season-ending shoulder injury. But since then, they have won five of six to improve to 8-6 and have a real shot at the playoffs. Minshew has thrown six touchdown passes and just one interception in his past three games.

Mayfield, meanwhile, threw for 381 yards and four touchdown passes Sunday in the Buccaneers' victory in Green Bay. Per ESPN Stats & Information, he became the first visiting quarterback to throw four TD passes and complete 75% of his passes at Lambeau Field ever, including the playoffs. He has seven touchdown passes and one interception during the Bucs' current three-game winning streak, and Tampa Bay is back to .500 for the season and in first place in the underwhelming NFC South. Thought by many to be a bridge quarterback in a rebuilding Bucs season, Mayfield has played well enough to once again resuscitate his career and present himself as a legitimate option -- for the Bucs or someone else -- in 2024 and beyond.

Both quarterbacks will be free agents after the season.

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

The Bucs could absolutely decide to stick with Mayfield for a while if they don't find their long-term answer in the draft. The Colts plan to have Richardson back, and Minshew could opt to stay with Indianapolis to fill the role he expected to fill this season after they drafted Richardson -- backing him up. But he'd surely like an opportunity to at least compete for a starting role somewhere.

And once the draft and free agent music stops, teams will be looking for chairs. Minshew has spent the bulk of this season proving he can start and win games in the NFL over the course of a season. There absolutely could be a team that decides he is to them what we thought Mayfield was going to be for this year's Bucs.