Citizens watch a news broadcast about North Korea's deployment of forces to Russia in the Ukraine war, at the waiting area of Seoul Station, Sunday. Yonhap
North Korea's troop deployment backing Russia heightens security threats in Northeast Asia
By Anna J. Park
South Korea is facing a dilemma over whether to provide lethal weapons to Ukraine in its war against Russia, following confirmation that North Korea has deployed troops to support Russia.
While Seoul will be pressured to take sterner and more active responses to the deepening military ties between Pyongyang and Moscow, experts advise the government to proceed with caution. They warn that preemptive actions could severely damage relations with Moscow and position South Korea at the center of the international conflict.
Concerns emerged after South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS) confirmed, Friday, that North Korea decided to send approximately 10,000 soldiers to Russia. The report also noted that over 1,500 North Korean soldiers were transported to Russia's Far East aboard Russian ships earlier this month as part of the first batch.
On the same day, Ukraine's Centre for Strategic Communication and Information Security (SPRAVDI) released a brief video on the social media platform X, showing North Korean soldiers standing in line to receive Russian military supplies.
The situation prompted the South Korean government to convene an emergency security meeting chaired by President Yoon Suk Yeol on Friday afternoon. The presidential office emphasized that the government will not overlook the issue, stressing that South Korea would mobilize "all available means" in cooperation with the international community.
"The Yoon administration has been closely tracking North Korea’s troop deployment from the beginning in collaboration with allied nations. The government plans to actively pursue necessary measures," the presidential office said.
While the presidential office refrained from publicly discussing specific follow-up actions, it indicated that "all available means" could involve considering the provision of arms to Ukraine, as well as imposing economic sanctions on Russia and North Korea.
So far, South Korea has maintained its stance of providing Ukraine with non-lethal humanitarian aid.
In June, after North Korea and Russia established a comprehensive strategic partnership and committed to a mutual defense agreement, the South Korean presidential office warned that it would reevaluate its position on supplying military weapons to Ukraine. The South Korean government stated at that time that the transfer of key nuclear or missile-related technologies from Russia to North Korea would be the "red line" that would influence South Korea's decision regarding the provision of lethal weapons.
'Red line yet to be crossed'
Now that North Korea is sending troops to Russia, there is an increasing possibility that Moscow may transfer critical technologies to Pyongyang in exchange, including intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) re-entry technology, strategic nuclear submarines, or satellite technology.
Against this backdrop, the South Korean government appears to be caught in a dilemma over whether to interpret the situation as North Korea and Russia crossing the red line previously established by Seoul, which serves as a threshold for providing lethal weapons to Ukraine.
However, security experts contacted by The Korea Times on Sunday assessed that the red line established by the South Korean government has not yet been crossed.
"The presidential office drew a red line in June, saying that when Russia provides North Korea with advanced military technology and weapons, it would consider providing lethal weapons to Ukraine. If Russia provides North Korea with advanced military technology, those weapons obviously pose a real, existential threat to South Korea. That's what the red line is about. While it's a complicated issue as to whether the dispatch of North Korean troops itself crosses the red line, the transfer of key technologies has not yet been confirmed," said Park Won-gon, a professor at Ewha Womans University and an expert on North Korean issues.
The professor explained that Russia must have offered North Korea substantial incentives in return, which might include the technologies the North desires — such as multiple warhead technology for ICBMs and nuclear submarine technology.
"If it's confirmed that North Korea has actually received such technologies, then that would definitely be crossing the red line. However, as of now, even U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin hasn't made a clear statement on the troop dispatch," Park said, adding that South Korea is still one of the first countries, along with Ukraine, to address how dangerous and serious this issue is.
Hong Min, senior fellow researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, also underscored that the South Korean government needs to take a cautious approach, advising it to align its steps with allies.
"If South Korea takes preemptive retaliatory measures, such as providing lethal weapons to Ukraine, in response to the strengthening of the North Korea-Russia military alliance, the inter-Korean confrontation will only become more intensified. This could also justify the North Korea-Russia military alliance," Hong said.
The North Korea expert said he is not suggesting the South Korean government should withhold support for Ukraine. He emphasized, "If Seoul uses that support as a rationale for retaliatory actions, it may provoke substantial backlash and confrontation. Hence, a cautious response is crucial."
He added, "Thus, we should instead condemn and impose sanctions on the North Korean deployments in the name of the international community and work together. If South Korea actively supports Ukraine independently as a form of retaliation against Pyongyang, North Korea could use South Korea's actions to justify its own behavior and become more overtly aligned with Russia."
