2024 PDC World Darts Championship picks, odds: Daily predictions ...
What began as a field of 96 of the world’s best darts players has slowly been whittled down to a field of 32 players at the PDC World Championship. As the home stretch of the tournament is set to begin on Wednesday, there are sure to be many more incredible moments, surprising upsets and amazing darts performances.
In the previous round of the World Championship, we saw many upsets and defeats that very few people could have predicted. Of the current top 32 players, according to the PDC Order of Merit, 11 of these individuals suffered defeat in Round 2 of the World Championships. These defeats include the likes of: No. 4 Peter “Snakebite” Wright, No. 6 Nathan “The Asp” Aspinall, No. 7 Danny “The Freeze” Noppert and eight other competitors ranked in the world top 32.
Despite many of these big names suffering an early defeat, many major title holders and young up-and-comers still remain. And with each victory in this event comes a large pay raise, as advancing into the third round netted each player a payout of $80,000.
Looking at the post-Christmas schedule, Round 3 begins with three days of very exciting matches. Before examining the specific matchups, consider a few statistics that have developed through the first couple rounds:
Most 180s
Luke Littler (12)
Chris Dobey, Matt Campbell, Florian Hempel (10)
Scott Williams (9)
Overall Tournament Averages
Stephen Bunting – 107.28
Chris Dobey – 103.09
Daryl Gurney – 100.79
Michael Smith – 100.09
Raymond van Barneveld – 99.81
Gary Anderson – 98.29
Top Tournament Checkout Percentages
Michael van Gerwen – 60%
Scott Williams, Ricky Evans – 56%
Raymond van Barneveld – 55%
Joe Cullen, Berry van Peer, Gabriel Clemens – 53%
As the tournament progresses into the later stages, the rounds grow larger, with players being required to win more and more sets at each stage of the event. Players who consistently find high-scoring averages and checkout percentages will inevitably fare better than those who struggle in one or both of those areas.
Three Trends to followMichael van Gerwen checkout percentage of 60 percent. MVG is already the odds-on favorite to win this tournament. He is so difficult to defeat if he can continue to hit doubles at this rate, or even any rate greater than 45 percent. All it takes is one bad match for someone to be eliminated, but 60 percent checkout from the favorite is terrifying.
Luke Humphries being absent from each statistical category at this time. Going into the World Championship, van Gerwen and Humphries were neck-and-neck as the two favorites to win this year’s title. The 28-year-old Humphries has had an incredible 2023 campaign, taking down televised PDC titles at the World Grand Prix, the Grand Slam of Darts and the Players Championship Finals. At this stage in the world championship, Humphries is averaging 93.58, with 37.5 percent on checkouts. Expect these numbers to increase in Humphries’ next match or two. Otherwise, we may not see Cool Hand Luke advancing much further.
Raymond van Barneveld is turning back the clock, averaging nearly 100 and finding a 55 percent checkout percentage. Both stats are very good numbers for anyone on the PDC tour, but it is simply astonishing for the oldest remaining competitor in the field. RVB is a former world champion, so he knows what it takes to win this tournament. But we have not seen him in form in this good in maybe a decade. With opponents getting increasingly difficult along the way, we will see if Barney can continue to produce these high averages. If he can do so, I would expect to see him in the late, late stages of this tournament.
Round 3 ScheduleFriday, December 29
Damon Heta vs. Berry van Peer
Jonny Clayton vs. Krzysztof Ratajski
Jim Williams vs. Raymond van Barneveld
Boris Krcmar vs. Gary Anderson
In this section, I plan to make a daily prediction, beginning with the Round 3 matches, each day until we reach the finals on Jan. 3.
All odds from BetMGM. Lines do not update live. Always shop around for best odds.
Dec. 29Jonny Clayton (-115) v. Krzysztof Ratajski
With many of darts’ top stories involving 16-year-old phenoms and 28-year olds taking over the sport, we find an intriguing matchup involving two older players, a couple staples of the PDC Tour who have been very active for the past five or six years. I like Jonny “The Ferret” Clayton to get through Krzysztof “The Polish Eagle” Ratajski in this matchup.
Both players would likely tell you they are a little disappointed in their 2023 campaigns, though they snagged a couple titles, despite having some inconsistent play throughout the year. For Ratajski, he secured victory at the German Darts Open. For Clayton, he secured victory back in May at Players Championship 23.
There is no question that Clayton, the current world No. 9, has more experience and has found more success regarding televised events. Clayton currently holds seven televised PDC titles. He has won the darts Premier League, and also secured a runner-up finish this year at the World Matchplay, one of darts most valued titles. Ratajski, the current world #24, has never won a televised PDC title, and in fact, his only televised title is a 2017 World Darts Federation victory.
Jonny also currently holds a 6-4 head-to-head record against Ratajski. Worth noting that Ratajski’s last two victories against Clayton came in last leg deciders. There is no question that Clayton is capable of competing with and beating the best in the world; he has shown it repeatedly throughout the last few years.Expecting to see a vintage performance from the Ferret in this one, seeing Clayton get through Ratajski to set up an epic matchup in the final eight against world No. 8 Rob “Voltage” Cross.
Michael van Gerwen (-161) v. Stephen Bunting
Not trying to overthink this one; I’m locking in world No. 2 and odds-on favorite “Mighty” Michael van Gerwen to defeat current world No. 18 Stephen “Bullet” Bunting.
It is no secret that Bunting has been exceptionally impressive at the 2024 World Championships. Bunting defeated world No. 35 “Relentless” Ryan Joyce 3-0, averaging over 107 in the match, and followed it up with a 4-0 defeat of world No. 59 Florian Hempel. The Bullet has been a major story of the tournament thus far, in part I believe, because he is playing at a higher level than we are used to seeing out of him.
Less of a story, but always force when it comes to major darts tournaments, Michael van Gerwen has also not dropped a set, defeating world No. 41 Keane Barry and world No. 79 Richard Veenstra. In the most recent match against Veenstra, MVG averaged 101.4, and hit 12/19 doubles (63.16%)—terrifying numbers for anyone remaining in the tournament.
Not much else for analysis here. If I see Michael van Gerwen available at (-161) odds, or really anywhere under (-200), in the final 16 of the World Championships at this point in his career, I consider it a must bet.
Dec. 28 – Joe Cullen (+100) vs. Ryan SearleResult: Cullen won 4-2
A little surprised to see No. 14 Joe “Rockstar” Cullen posted as a slight underdog to No. 19 Ryan “Heavy Metal” Searle, but I am happy to lock in Cullen to get the win at plus odds.
Expecting a battle in this one, as both of these players have been in very good form with solid 2023 campaigns. But I am leaning towards Cullen for two reasons. In five PDC tour matches, Cullen holds a 3-2 series head-to-head record against Searle. In Searle’s two victories over Cullen, though, Searle has squeaked out a pair of 6-5 wins. In Cullen’s three victories, Rockstar has won 6-5, 6-4, and 6-2 over Searle. I do not see Searle running away with this match; either Cullen finds a fairly smooth path to victory, or the two are engulfed in a nail-bitingly close match that could go either way.
The other reason is Cullen’s experience, especially recently, in televised darts matches. Cullen has one major title, taking down the 2022 PDC Darts Masters. Searle has zero major title victories. Searle’s best finish at a major is the last 16, a finish he achieved at the 2022 PDC Darts Masters that was won by Cullen.
Cullen also finished as runner-up in the 2022 Premier League of Darts, missing one match dart that would have won the entire Premier League that year. He ultimately lost to Michael van Gerwen in an incredible finals match. Searle has never been invited to the Premier League, and really lacks much experience when it comes to the pressure of televised darts performances.
The bottom line is that I expect a tight match here, with two absolute dogs going to battle to advance to the final 16 of the world championship. I think Cullen has the edge in this one, and I love locking him in at (+100).
Dec. 27 – Dave Chisnall (-165) vs. Gabriel ClemensResult: Chisnall won 4-1
I am taking No. 11, Dave “Chizzy” Chisnall to get through No. 22 Gabriel “The German Giant” Clemens.
Clemens surprised many at this tournament last year, advancing to the semifinals, losing to ultimate world champion Michael “Bullyboy” Smith. It was a very impressive finish for the German player, but despite last year’s result, I have not been impressed with Clemens’ form this season. In his career, Clemens is the owner of zero televised titles, zero non-televised titles and zero nine-dart finishes. The German Giant does seem to find ways to win a match, or two, or three, at many PDC tournaments, but he always falls short of the ultimate victory.
Chisnall, on the other hand, is the owner of 22 non-televised PDC titles and one televised nine-dart finish. Chisnall has also been in very strong form late in the 2023 season, booking a ranking victory just last month at the Players Championship Finals. Just as Clemens reached the World Champion semifinal last year, Chisnall accomplished the same feat back in 2021.
Both Chisnall and Clemens are terrific PDC tour players, but I give the edge to Chisnall when it comes to experience on the big stage and scoring average. So long as Chisnall can find his doubles, averaging just under 32 percent through two tournament rounds, I expect Chisnall to advance through Clemens into Round 4.
(Photo of Michael van Gerwen: Tom Dulat / Getty Images)
