End game for Stephen Kenny or survival Sunday

Results had no bearing on the decision of the FAI to change women’s manager, whereas they’ve been the commodity Kenny simply hasn’t delivered over his 35 matches.

Of his 25 competitive games, only five have resulted in wins and they’ve failed to build on the noteworthy ones, at home to Scotland 15 months ago, for example. Six of the last 10 competitive matches ended in defeat.

Nobody should be surprised at Kenny waving the home crowd card within minutes of the latest reverse in Paris on Thursday night.

“When we beat Scotland 3-0, that was the highest-ranked team that Ireland had won against since Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Aviva in the Euro 2016 playoff.

“We went up a level to beat a seeded team but now we are going to have to go up a level again because Holland are ranked higher.” 

If this was Kenny’s attempt at a rallying call to the sold-out stadium, then it conveniently forgot that Ireland recorded wins over Italy, Austria and Wales in the next two years.

Chairman Roy Barrett had spoken of tolerating bumps on the road during the era of a manager leaning heavily on blooding players, but there’s been too much talk and little action following his various crashes at the wheel. It doesn't require stating, never mind repeating, that players give everything of themselves.

Setbacks against lower seeds Luxembourg, Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Greece were dealt with by promising better days ahead.

Excuses have been tiresome, lives used up, and the Dutch will be the last act unless he can mastermind the biggest result of his three-year reign.

Greece’s dominant win in Athens and the goalless first half against Gibraltar provoked a long debate at FAI board level about the manager’s future.

Prominent directors previously loyal to the ‘project’ were dismayed by the manager’s selection and tactical failings.

A sacking on the eve of the Women’s World Cup wasn’t advised but only on the condition that this September double-header would represent the ultimate metric.

Even he finally admitted in the aftermath of the third defeat of four qualifiers that Sunday is must-win.

Not solely to resuscitate the Euro campaign but for Kenny to avoid a premature severance.

That scenario was factored into the contract extension granted in November 2021, a clause enabling the employer to lower the axe without being obliged to pay up the full remaining salary.

Kenny’s contract expires when Ireland’s Euro tilt finishes, which technically might not be ‘till playoffs next March, but the reality of it being over on Sunday will unleash action.

A board meeting, certainly in person, may not even be necessary.

The routine monthly summit of directors lands on September 26 – clashing with the first away Nations League game for the women’s team in Hungary – but there will be no benefit in allowing a vacuum to develop.

All board members were fully aware of the target and consequences three months ago when the manager’s job security was last discussed.

So too are Jonathan Hill, the chief executive, and director of football Marc Canham.

Their opinion was the catalyst for Pauw’s sacking and together with Packie Bonner, chairman of the FAI's High Performance and International committee, their collective take will be paramount.

Kenny can have no complaints if the inevitable cull unfolds next week.

Early allowances were made on the basis the fruits of his labour would peak for this tilt at reaching Germany next year.

He admitted himself this was the campaign to judge him. Anything less than three points will render the final three games a consolation tussle with the Greeks to avoid finishing fourth.

As with his World Cup series, it’s the failure to beat teams beneath them in seedings that marred this campaign.

Kenny was quick to cite France’s 4-0 hammering of the Dutch to illustrate their peerless status, yet wasn’t highlighting how the Dutch mauling of Greece magnified the mess Ireland made in Athens.

Were Hill to be instructed to issue marching orders early next week, it is more likely that John O’Shea rather than Keith Andrews would be asked to take caretaker charge for next month’s double-header at home to Greece and away to Gibraltar.

Lee Carsley remains at the forefront of contenders to succeed Kenny, meaning his last fixture leading the U21 Euro champions, England, might come on Monday in Luxembourg.

Chris Hughton, also in a job managing Ghana, is well regarded by the powerbrokers and the FAI won’t restrict their search to a two-horse race.

Clarity, instead of confusing double-Dutch, will emerge on the second Sunday of September.

Ireland managers' win rate since 1973

Mick McCarthy 47% (22 wins in 47 competitive games) 

Jack Charlton 46% (26/57) 

Brian Kerr 44% (7/16) 

Eoin Hand 42% (10/24) 

Giovanni Trapattoni 40% (14/35) 

Martin O'Neill 38% (12/32) 

Steve Staunton 36% (4/11) 

John Giles 33% (6/18) 

Stephen Kenny 20% (5/25)