Ireland is facing the possibility of a significant snow storm within days.
Weather models suggest a dramatic shift from the mild and damp conditions of late to much colder and stormier weather as we move into the New Year. Forecasters are sounding the alarm over New Year's Day, where uncertainty remains around the track and intensity of a potential storm system.
Models vary significantly with one predicting heavy rain and strong winds, and another bringing the risk of widespread snow. However, currently all models agree that the incoming storm system will draw in Arctic air and lead to a prolonged cold snap.
Weather models from a numbers of agencies show a storm system moving in overnight on January 1, bringing strong winds and heavy rain - as well as widespread snow. The system is signalled to make landfall in the southwest and move northeastwards throughout New Year's Day before eventually clearing into the Irish sea.
Following that, weather models show a mega Arctic blast engulfing the country for up to a week, with some models showing temperatures as low as -9C at times. Irish weather expert Alan O'Reilly shared the models on his Carlow Weather social media accounts, explaining: "Another cloudy day today but it’s all eyes on New Year’s Day weather models as risk of storm increases but the details still vary on models with position of storm varying. One model brings wind and rain while the other brings risk of snow. Either way cold will follow after!"
Met Eireann has weighed in on the weather outlook, predicting a likely shift to colder and more unsettled conditions in the first week of January. Its current forecast points to a wet and windy New Year's Eve, followed by widespread rain and strong winds on New Year's Day.
However for the first week of January, the national forecaster highlights the growing likelihood of colder air arriving in the wake of a storm system. It said: "A change to colder, more unsettled conditions is expected to take place in the first week of the new year as colder air dips over the region, with the dry conditions experienced for the Christmas period giving way to more rainy weather."
Today, Dubliners have woken up to a cloudy day, with some light drizzle expected as the day goes on. Temperatures are expected to get up to around 11C.
It will be dry and clear tonight, but colder than recent nights, with a fall to around 4C. And here is what the full Met Eireann forecast is saying for the next few days:
OUTLOOK: Gradually becoming more unsettled as we move into the New Year.
SUNDAY: Mostly dry and breezy with some sunny spells. Highest temperatures of 8 to 11 degrees in moderate to fresh southwest winds.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Breezy with rain in the northwest and well scattered showers across Atlantic counties. Lowest temperatures of 5 to 9 degrees in fresh to strong southwest winds.
MONDAY: Staying breezy with outbreaks of rain across Ulster and Connacht, possibly turning heavier through the day. Mostly dry elsewhere with sunny spells. Highest temperatures of 9 to 12 degrees in fresh to strong southwest winds.
MONDAY NIGHT: Becoming mostly cloudy overnight with outbreaks of rain becoming more widespread. Parts of the south and southeast may hold dry. Lowest temperatures of 8 to 11 degrees.
TUESDAY (NEW YEAR'S EVE): Wet and windy with outbreaks of rain becoming lighter and patchier through the day. Fresh to strong southwesterly winds will moderate through the day, increasing strong again overnight. Highest temperatures of 10 to 12 degrees.
WEDNESDAY (NEW YEAR'S DAY): Some uncertainty with current indications suggesting that it'll turn very windy with strong southwesterlies, and widespread outbreaks of rain.
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