Ireland is facing the possibility of a significant snow storm within days. Weather models suggest a dramatic shift from the mild and damp conditions of late to much colder and stormier weather as we move into the New Year.
Forecasters are sounding the alarm over New Year's Day, where uncertainty remains around the track and intensity of a potential storm system.
Models vary significantly with one predicting heavy rain and strong winds, and another bringing the risk of widespread snow. However, currently all models agree that the incoming storm system will draw in Arctic air and lead to a prolonged cold snap.
Weather models from a numbers of agencies show a storm system moving in overnight on January 1, bringing strong winds and heavy rain - as well as widespread snow. The system is signalled to make landfall in the southwest and move northeastwards throughout New Year's Day before eventually clearing into the Irish sea.
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Following that, weather models show a mega Arctic blast engulfing the country for up to a week, with some models showing temperatures as low as -9C at times.
Irish weather expert Alan O'Reilly shared the models on his Carlow Weather social media accounts, explaining: "Another cloudy day today but it’s all eyes on New Year’s Day weather models as risk of storm increases but the details still vary on models with position of storm varying. One model brings wind and rain while the other brings risk of snow. Either way cold will follow after!"
Met Eireann has weighed in on the weather outlook, predicting a likely shift to colder and more unsettled conditions in the first week of January.
Its current forecast points to a wet and windy New Year's Eve, followed by widespread rain and strong winds on New Year's Day.
However for the first week of January, the national forecaster highlights the growing likelihood of colder air arriving in the wake of a storm system. It said: "A change to colder, more unsettled conditions is expected to take place in the first week of the new year as colder air dips over the region, with the dry conditions experienced for the Christmas period giving way to more rainy weather."
In the meantime, the forecast for the coming days reads: "Outbreaks of rain will affect northern and western areas on Saturday morning. The rain will become patchier as it slowly moves southeastwards during the day with minimal amounts over Munster and Leinster. Highest temperatures of 8C to 11C in light to moderate southwest winds. Overall dry Saturday night with clear spells apart from the odd shower across western and northern counties. Colder than recent nights with lowest temperatures of 2C to 6C. Moderate southwesterly winds will freshen towards morning.
"Mostly dry, and rather breezy Sunday with some sunny spells and scattered showers for the north and west. Highest temperatures of 8C to 11C in moderate to fresh southwest winds. Breezy Sunday night with rain in the northwest and well scattered showers across Atlantic counties. Lowest temperatures of 5C to 9C in fresh to strong southwest winds.
"Staying breezy Monday with outbreaks of rain across Ulster and Connacht, possibly turning heavier through the day. Mostly dry elsewhere with sunny spells. Highest temperatures of 9C to 12C in fresh to strong southwest winds. Becoming mostly cloudy overnight Monday with outbreaks of rain becoming more widespread. Parts of the south and southeast may hold dry. Lowest temperatures of 8C to 11C."
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