Ireland weather: Arctic blast on the way, as weather models pinpoint ...

3 hours ago

Ireland has been in for a relatively mild November so far, with the month predicted to be slightly milder than the average November this year.

Weather Ireland - Figure 1
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However, some weather models are predicting that a blast of Arctic wind may see temperatures drop in the coming weeks, with a chance of snow possible too.

Ireland sees roughly 30 days of snow annually, the majority of it falling on mountain peaks only.

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However, Ireland's Weather Channel warned that people should not see the predictions as a guarantee, as long range forecasts as very much subject to change.

Cathal from Ireland's Weather Channel said: "As mentioned this morning in our update high pressure looks to remain in control right the way up to the middle of the month with largely dry and very mild weather for the time of year with temperatures well above average."

"However, the ECMWF has indicated that a transition towards more unsettled but cooler weather is likely for the final week or two of the month. This evening the GFS has hinted at a similar outcome, with even some snow on the charts."

"But… (and it’s a big but), these charts are merely speculative so far out and they’ll continue to chop and change over the coming week until we start to see some more concrete trends developing. It’s interesting to see some indications of a change."

"Though for now, please disregard any outlandish headlines about snow."

In Met Eireann's Extended Range Forecast report, they recently noted that this winter is due to be warmer than average.

The long range forecast from the national forecaster makes this prediction with data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), which provides information about the past, present and future climate.

"The signal from the C3S seasonal models for Ireland during the (November, December, January) period is for above average temperatures.

"Rainfall amounts are less certain with the possibility of precipitation trending slightly below average overall."

"Mean temperatures during (November, December, January) are signalled to be above average overall. Temperatures are likely to trend between 0.2 and 1.0°C above average over the three month period."

They predict that December may be drier than other months: "The rainfall forecast is less certain, though there is the potential for drier spells, especially in December."

The sea surface temperatures around Irish coasts are expected to be average to slightly above average during (November, December, January), trending 0.2 to 0.5°C degrees higher than normal generally, with the highest anomalies later in the period."

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